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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64231)	5/25/2005 6:31:30 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Ray, Autumn 2008 might see continuing price rises as alternative energy supplies and energy saving processes come on stream to replace declining oil volumes. But I wouldn't place much of a bet on that. I expect that even if oil production peaks then, current prices are sufficiently high to have pushed people to other activities. Even if oil prices double, that's a bit of a yawn for the world economy which is less dependent on oil per GDP dollar, especially in the USA, than it was before the first oil crunch in 1974, when you will recall oil quadrupled in price in a few months. Even that wasn't TeoTwawki, though there was quite a stock market decline in 1974. As a regular man in the street, I barely noticed it as a problem. Same in 1979 with another quadrupling, it wasn't a very big deal, though we did have politicians come up with the dopey idea of carless days [I kid you not] instead of just leaving the price to go up until supply matched demand. With a lot of people around the world earning $10 a day, or less, you can imagine that they won't be buying dirty great SUVs and petrol/gasoline at $1 a litre. There's no law against buying tiny little vehicles with tiny little engines if people don't like the price of petrol. No worries mate, Mqurice