Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (64234)	5/25/2005 6:51:52 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Re: alternative energy supplies and energy saving processes come on stream to replace declining oil volumes Studying the work of thoughtful men like Ken Deffeyes, Richard Heinberg, Matt Simmons and others, I have come to the conclusion that you are engaged in what is called wishful thinking by some, and delusion by others. The oil economy took many decades to create. Even if mankind embarked on a crash program today to exploit alternative energy supplies, we are decades away from having the infrastructure in place to successfully maintain standards of living for most of humanity. For instance, hydrogen has been touted as the replacement for oil for transportation needs. Yet there are probably fewer than 100 hydrogen filling stations on the planet. In the U.S. the number is less than a dozen. Compare that to the 100,000 or so gasoline and diesel filling stations across the country and you begin to see the daunting nature of the task of converting to a hydrogen based transportation system. Not to mention the fact that there are no mass produced hydrogen vehicles for sale today, and no manufacturer has gotten beyond the early planning stages for the plants that will construct the hydrogen powered vehicles. If you do a PERT (Project Evaluation & Review Technique) analysis of the situation, I'm sure you'll agree that there is a huge gap between when the transition needs to occur to prevent disruption and when it is actually likely to be made a reality. Furthermore, the planet is currently on a glide path toward insufficient grain surpluses. Worldwide, grain stocks have dwindled from about 700 million metric tons in 2000 to 350 million metric tons in 2004. Assuming that fertilizer, pesticide and farm fuel costs all continue to escalate at their present rate, and considering that these inputs are all dependent on petroleum feedstocks, you begin to see the problem as not simply being one of odd-even days for filling our tanks at the petrol station, but actually encompasses much of the ability of mankind to feed itself. Presently, with the surpluses we have, about 700 million humans are chronically malnourished. This number can only go up when food surpluses are depleted, which at the present rate will probably occur no later than 2010. Should we be optimistic about the future? Or would we not be better off to start to plan for it?