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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64237)	5/26/2005 3:20:04 AM
From: Gib Bogle	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

"hydrogen has been touted as the replacement for oil for transportation needs" The main point is that hydrogen isn't a _source_ of energy, it's just a storage medium (and one that's fraught with problems). The big issue is where is the energy coming from. Gib

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (64237)	5/28/2005 4:10:46 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

People in Auckland could buy a bicycle [or catch a bus or multi-passeger taxi, or train, or walk or hitch-hike] and ride to work/school etc. That would save a lot of fuel. Meanwhile, <The oil economy took many decades to create. Even if mankind embarked on a crash program today to exploit alternative energy supplies, we are decades away from having the infrastructure in place to successfully maintain standards of living for most of humanity. > Not decades. It takes a few years to build big ethanol production plants from biomass, not decades. With conservation and transition, people wouldn't notice much of a change in their lives. There has already been a large transition, from US$10 crude in early 1999 to US$50 crude today. That makes a LOT of alternatives economic. Such as, for example, the Prius, which is selling a LOT. It is very fuel efficient. Some people have perhaps switched to bicycles or moved closer to work or started catching a train or bus. The oil economy didn't take decades to create. It grew along with all other technological, legal, commercial, population and other developments. To replace all the oil infrastructure now would be a lot less of a problem than 30 years ago. Now, the share of oil in GDP is a pathetic shadow of its former self, even at $50 a barrel. In my oil heyday, I could swagger around as King of the Roost, pontificating about GL5 this, ASTM that, API the other, flexible volatility index and motor octane number. The crowd would gasp in awe, "Ooooohhh, ahhh! Wow!" Now the young cyberspacoids snigger at me if I have the temerity to suggest I check their oil. "Okay Gramps, knock yourself out, but it doesn't use any oil and I usually buy new oil when I buy a new car which costs a fraction of my annual pay". I start to tell them how a car used to cost a couple of years pay and they needed an oil change every 1000 miles and a top up on a daily basis, not to mention greasing and gear box change. How there were petrol stations in every hick town and aircraft had to refuel 10 times on a trip around the world. But they've already drifted off and are texting and taking photos on their CDMA cyberphones. Let me tell you, oil was once serious business. There were wars fought over it!! Mqurice