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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (33780)	6/3/2005 9:16:38 AM
From: critical_mass	Respond to of 110194

"Calculated Risk" pointed out last month that the calculation you made on this month's data (the same one i made last month) mixes seasonally adjusted and non adjusted numbers. Message 21299759 but you can verify the effect of the birth death by looking at a full year of data and a full year of adjustments as i did last month. Message 21300046 the july birth/death adjustment has been negative in the past bls.gov so july should produce a really negative jobs number unless of course the economy actually starts generating jobs. <g/ng>

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (33780)	6/3/2005 12:29:10 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 110194

you said it, April was big negative was gonna cite the +207k Birth-Death my guess is legitimate increase might have been 50-75k from small business we must factor in something for business growth / jim

To: sciAticA errAticA who wrote (33780)	6/4/2005 5:00:17 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

Seasonable adjusted is 78K Actual is around 450 K Seasonable adjusted may really be NEGATIVE. The main issue many fail to follow is the components of the new jobs which are older age care related, or RE bubble related - RE jobs, Financial Services, Legal Services and transportation. Wonder were RE brokers and RE appraisers are categorized. On top of all that YoY over 450 thousand are calculated as leaving the job force and wages are badly lagging inflation. For comparison Germany which is considered a basked case at about 27% to 29% of US population added 140,000 or so new jobs in May If compared to the US they added more jobs per 10,000 than the US did - so go figure