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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (64608)	6/5/2005 8:08:37 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<<benign depression>> ?? ... is a difficult concept for me ;0) ... instead of painful pleasure, or pleasurable pain, or benign tumor, I think of malignant boom, and non-fatal death :0) <<The US is going to be Japan post 1989>> ... difficult concept for me, because Japan real estate boom and bust was basically on fairly illiquid and few/far between commercial transactions coupled with real estate-backed landing to some in society, as opposed to real estate backed landing for everybody in society.

To: macavity who wrote (64608)	6/5/2005 12:20:35 PM
From: seventh_son	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Macavity, Here's an article by Richard Duncan, author of "The Dollar Crisis", that makes a compelling case for increasingly low interest rates generated by the US current account deficit fuelling a continuing property bubble until this bubble can grow no further and Asian savers reach their saturation point for ownership of US assets of all kinds. financeasia.com As to whether gold rallies in this environment, I have to think yes. Increasing we see that all the world's currencies are crap... US dollar with its current account deficits, Euro area mired in political problems and impending demographic problems, and Japan with its massive government debt. We are reaching a point where the real yield on debt in these currencies is ridiculously low, not compensating for risks. In this environment how can gold do anything but benefit? Gold as an investment in western countries is coming off an extremely low base and looks increasingly attractive simply because there are no currency alternatives that compete if they do not provide a real rate of return that compensates for risk. Once gold starts taking off, it will be difficult to contain. The trend chasers who rode tech and real estate may well hail it as the new way to get rich easy, which is what the modern US mentality is all about. I'm sure that western central bankers have countless tricks in wait to scare people away from gold or manipulate it lower, but it might be a long tug of war at ever-rising levels.