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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (31893)	6/12/2005 2:30:04 AM
From: regli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Mauldin is fighting the last war with his perspective on demographics. Let's double the workforce now and see if it increases prosperity for the individual. To advocate a significant increase in population at a time of increased awareness of scarcer resources be they energy, food or other resources, is questionable in itself. The combination of significantly increased automation and outsourcing will, in time, point out very harshly the fallacy of this argument.

To: mishedlo who wrote (31893)	6/12/2005 4:07:08 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

correct statistics wrong conclusions. The US is tapped to the max in it's strive of free markets and adequate laws. Europe has still a relative big pool of people able and willing to work according to statistics - therefore a lower birth rate will keep people employed longer more productive and organized. In routine work were experience is needed in a modern world were physical power of the young is of little use I would prefer a 55 years old over a 20 something with all his inexperience and youth problems. As ot the currency analysis it is one sided and would be happy to hear how the US will resolve the present pile of debt, achieve a savings rate like Europe and be able to export it's products at the same percentage level of the GDP like Europe Further, one of the main issue Mauldin is ignoring is the fact that most people today die of depression as a result of being marginalized by society after age 50 to 55 (try to get a productive job after 55 in the US not to mention 65). Therefore a vast amount of experience and productivity embedded in the older person goes to waste, society must train new workers at a cost and makes the older fired person disillusioned and more prone to various illness and at the end cost the society much more. Personal example my father worked until he was 78 or 79 was a happy person boasting of the appreciation he had at work and his supervisor / owner and was rarely sick. He worked last few years only part time. Therefore he did not need any medical care and was contributing to society. After his dismissal due to old age, the health problems started to pile and he passed away succumbing to cancer at age 88. On the other hand high birth rate and immigration may support the growing aging population if there are new PRODUCTIVE jobs generated and not healthcare / social care related jobs which are generated from the fact that older people are fired from their workplace due to age constrains fall into dissatisfaction and lack of purpose get sick and sicker and finally end up to be chronically depressed. For you to judge which development is preferable Mauldin speculation of needed population growth or that of my father. As to Mauldin he predicted 1.50 EUR v. the USD when every one else was predicting the same now he is back with the crowd - wonder about his independent thinking and analysis capabilities