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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Jones who wrote (34285)	6/23/2005 10:44:47 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 306849

I am a fairly experienced short seller of stocks ... and I would say NEVER short a stock on the way up. I always wait until I think the top is in and then short (there are always up ticks). I'd rather miss the first 10% on the downside than risk having it double on me in a buying mania. For housing, if I was an owner planning on selling right now, I'd wait until it looked like the market was seriously slowing (watch inventories, mortgage apps, New Home Sales, etc.). Then I'd sell after I felt we had seen the top by making my price attractive to recent comps. There are always buyers and I doubt the price will immediately drop like a rock. But don't chase the price down as many sellers seem to do ... be somewhat aggressive on pricing and be willing to accept less than recent comps ... that will make the buyer think they are "getting a deal". Another rule: wait until the story changes. I think the story is starting to change on real estate right now with all the recent press, but it hasn't changed yet.