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To: TobagoJack who wrote (65552)	6/26/2005 10:21:58 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 74559

I was going to say something about GOOG.... anyway hope it goes down a little in the next couple of days....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65552)	6/27/2005 2:16:38 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Some very funny things going on - Reviewing what I saw with Senate on Thursday, the proposals for a 27% tariff on Chinese goods seemed much more bipartisan than they should be - looks like something coordinated by part of the US foreign policy community. *** CNOOC, CVX, UCL Chevron real cost - In southern California, the Texaco facilities are close to the Chevron ones and close to the Unocal facitlies. With Chevron and Texaco noiw mergered, there will be lot of opportunies to shed staff and cut costs - only one lobbyiist firm in Sacramento, etc. By year 2 Chevron coul dhave easily cut 400-500 million in costs. With a P/E of about 9, this means the actual cost to Chevron will be about 3 Billion less than the nominal 16.7 cash + stock. CNOOC does have facilities nearby, so they don't have these cost cutting opportunites. So CNOOC is currently bidding at least 35% more that CVX. According to our own Elroy Jetson, CVX is careful with spending money , and may have some other cost saving plans... * Wall Street Journal for Friday. There's an article about how one CNOOC outside director had MANY questions about this deal. This director had spent time in Japan during Japan's buying spree. In the article at the top of page 6 there's a quote from some oil analyst to effect the CNOOC bid sets an new high water mark for valuations... This leads to a possiblity that Jay mentioned a number of months ago - that some firms in China (not the ones he was advising) would start paying prices for assets like those that Japan paid back in the 1980s.... **** Speculation - CNOOC agrees to spin off/ sell off most US assests and maybe some overseas after Unocal acquiation. This means a big redution in debt load. Also would avoid most National Security issues. Further speculations - The Unocal properties a spilt into Califonia and Gulf of Mexico areas. By having smaller pieces, there are many move companies who can bid, not just the super majors. Devon DVN or Kerr-McGee KMG could buy the Gulf assets, and Tesorro, Valero or even Mexico's Pemex could buy the California assets. Another twist would be to split the properties into a royalty trust and and acerage and exploraion company. The royalty tust would be IPOed, maybe with a target yield of 9%, and the other company sold. All this activity would generate a number of fees for Wall Street I-banks - and they would be likely to try to influence the press positively....

To: TobagoJack who wrote (65552)	6/27/2005 2:18:00 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

What's the view in your part of the world on - 1) That tariff proposal ? 2) CNOOC - bidding too high ?