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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tradelite who wrote (34689)	6/30/2005 3:38:38 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 306849

Mish, if you think those excess real estate agents in California, who you think will go broke if the market turns down, actually NEEDED the money when they went into the business, then either they were stupid (because real estate does not guarantee a living wage unless one is already established in the biz), or you don't understand the real estate business. If you are suggesting that real estate agents do not need their commissions, then I politely suggest that you are only nuts. If you think that there is not a lot of real estate agents who after a number of successful years in the business are not dependent on their commission then I think that is nuts too. You act as if everone is fully prepared for a real estate bust, from agents, to mortgage brokers, to truckers, to plumbers, roofers, to HVAC installers. That position is totally absurd. No it does not take nuclear winter to put a ton of people in serious hurt. Do you know how many people are living paycheck to paycheck? Even an 8% drop in the jobs associted with real estate will be a total disaster IMO. I suspect it will be a lot more than that. The notion that HVAC tradesmen are for some reason impervious to a slowdown and can get a job "anywhere" is quite simply preposterous. If you want to tell me that HVAC is a better trade than roofing, I would have to agree 100%. Speaking of roofing, off the top of my head that seems to be one of the worst specialties. Every trade will be affected, some far more than others. Brick layers and drywallers would seem to be other bad ones off the top of my head. Mish