To: TobagoJack who wrote (65743 ) 6/30/2005 8:16:01 PM From: energyplay Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559 I don't think current US policy towards China is containment. To the extent the US has a coherent policy ;-) I think the current US policy (my guess, and not my preferences)would like to see China - 1)richer, pulling another 400 million out of poverty, and trading with the US on resonably equitable basis. China will be expected to observe the WTO intellectual property protections a little closer, but it is likely China will get much more slack on these issues than others 2)stable, with government continuity 3)with some kind of stable unification with Taiwan 4)With a military capability which can resist Russia, deter Islamic extremists, and .... 5)A military which can deter the Japanesse without scaring Japan into going nuclear or having a massive arms buildup After all if BOTH Japan and China are heavily spending on the military , where's the money to buy US Treasury bonds ? 6) With a military and strategic position which maybe significant, but not capable of blocking US power projection away from Asia, such as US activities in Africa, Persian Gulf. This touches on technology arms sales to states we don't like, such as missles to Iran. 7) With a military and strategic position which does not become a mortal threat to the United States or it's close allies. The role of the former Soviet Union will be forclosed. This gets interesting, is Japan a close ally of the US, and will it be in the future ? Would the US like an ally with 1.3 Billion people or 120 million ? Should the US stick with the wonderful folks who brought us Pearl Harbor and the Bataan Death March, or a country the US has been allied with (in SOME form ;-) ) since the 1940s ? a little stretch here... *************** Items 1-4 closely match the current plans for a "moderately prosperous nation" #5 avoid triggering major Japan militarization is a big issue for the US, even as we are allies with Japan, and expect them to occasionaly support US "adventures" in distant lands... #6 blocking US activity outside of Asia, is a minor source for conflict, but not a huge concern as a practical matter. #7 Is pretty obvious. There is also a very large gap between China being able to deter a possible attack by the US, and the massive capabilites for annihilation the Soviet Union built up. This is also more of a future issue, unless certain actions or patterns of actions occur. Unless China really wants to spend the effort for world domination - by the way,China can have the French as allies - it might be useful to avoid being Topic A for strategic planner s in the US, Europe and the rest of the world. Note no mention of 'human rights'.....