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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (35798)	7/11/2005 11:30:23 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

From today's Contrary Investor: it just so happens that birth/death model additions over the February through June period of this year accounted for 96.2% of the total body count additions in the headline payroll report itself. ... You may also remember from past coverage of this topic that January and July are the two large revision months each year for the B/D model assumptions. So, we expect the July payroll numbers to be reported early next month to be quite telling. Here we have the prior five months of the headline payroll report literally being totally driven by the B/D assumptions. If those were good assumptions (good guesses), then the revision should be small and the headline payroll numbers that have already been reported to be relatively accurate. But if for some reason the ongoing B/D model adjustments have been too aggressive this year, we could be in for a very weak payroll report for July. Although past can never be counted on to be prologue, the January revision of this year was a drop of (280,000) jobs as reflected in the B/D model for that month.