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Technology Stocks : Stratex Networks, Inc. (STXN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: The Ox who wrote (1658)7/22/2005 4:21:00 PM
From: Rob Preuss  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1762
 
For what its worth.

This was posted on the Yahoo message board today...

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Pick your revenue expectation and slide across to expected stock price:
Assumptions of P/S=7 and 95 mil shares outstanding. This represents
Eclipse line revenue only! Legacy revenue is discarded.

Annual Eclipse line revenue:

$30 mil........$2.27/share <now>
$35 mil........$2.58/share
$40 mil........$2.94/share
$50 mil........$3.68/share
$55 mil........$4.05/share*
$60 mil........$4.42/share
$70 mil........$5.16/share
$85 mil........$6.26/share**
$90 mil........$6.63/share
$100 mil.......$7.37/share
$110 mil.......$8.10/share
$120 mil.......$8.84/share***
$130 mil.......$9.58/share

My best guess
*-next quarter
**-2 QTRS out
***3 Qtrs out

Taken right from my 'Fair Value' calculations for STXN used to
determine swing trade enter and exit points. (usually exit at
P/S=9x sales).
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and this was a posted response...

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To have a target of over $100 Million a quarter for Eclipse
sales in the next 3 quarters is just a fantasy at this stage.

Those numbers simply aren't realistic. To suggest that new sales are
going to be coming in at 100% sequential growth, quarter over quarter
is pie in the sky fantasy. Even half that rate is a bit too aggressive.
30, 45, 67, 100...this would be tremendous growth and I believe even
this is a bit too ambitous. It will be harder and harder to produce 50%
order growth as the revenues increase. Also, there will be spurts and
plateaus in the ordering patterns, so let's tone down the hype a little here!

Before we start targeting 100 million in a quarter, let's see what the
company has to say 2 weeks from now. Pie in the sky numbers won't
help anyone, long or short. Let's be more realistic and reduce the hype
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