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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (36113)7/15/2005 5:00:36 PM
From: Crimson Ghost  Respond to of 110194
 
Job growth was much stronger during the 1990s expansion but home price growth was still modest.

How anybody can take Bernake seriously as an analyst is beyond me.



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (36113)7/16/2005 9:55:11 AM
From: russwinter  Respond to of 110194
 
The pending sales index is one to track,
news.morningstar.com
but I must say it's double lagging. For instance the index for May was reported well into July (effectively a two month lag). Like the MBAA "application survey" it shows contracts (purchase and sale agreements), not closes(*). If we are witnessing a major cooling or cold wave (the Galbraith bang theory, not a whimper (**)), then the indicator we should also be keying on for real time developments, are "fall from escrows", people killing deals, based on various contingencies. There is some of that going in this particular market,
sdcondo.com
but this is jst too small of a sample. Help from participants here would be terrific?

(*)
The index is based on pending sales of existing homes, including single-family homes and condominiums. A home sale is pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction hasn't closed. Pending sales typically close within one or two months of signing.

(**)
Those who had been riding the upward wave decide now is the time to get out. Those who thought the increase would be forever find their illusion destroyed abruptly, and they, also, respond to the newly revealed reality by selling or trying to sell. And thus the rule, supported by the experience of centuries: the speculative episode always ends not with a whimper but with a bang.

-John Kenneth Galbraith



To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (36113)7/19/2005 12:23:29 PM
From: ild  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 110194
 
Home prices smash $600,000 level
O.C. residences sold last month for a median $603,000, an 11.7 percent jump in a year. The rate of increase has slowed from 30 percent in June 2004.

By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register

Orange County's $500,000 housing market became a $600,000 market in June, when the median price of a locally owned home jumped to $603,000, DataQuick Information Systems reported today.

It took 14 months for the typical value of an Orange County condo, townhome and detached house to climb from the half-million-dollar mark to the $600,000 milestone.

The $500,000 level was reached just a year after the median value reached $400,000.

"It's been in the cards for a long time," said John Karevoll, an analyst for DataQuick, a La Jolla company that tracks recorded real estate transactions. "It's happening at a slower pace now than when Orange County hit the $500,000 line ... but it's still going up."

The median price is the figure where half the homes sell for less and half for more.

The median was lower for condos and highest for the limited supply of newly built homes coming on the market.

The median-price condominium sold for $440,000 last month, DataQuick reported. An existing single-family home sold for a median $660,000 and a brand-new home for $753,000.

Overall, the county home price was 11.7 percent higher than a year ago – 26.2 percent for the 363 newly built homes that sold in June.

That appreciation rate is down from the 30 percent level reported for June 2004, DataQuick figures show, perhaps a sign that the rate of price gain is slowing down.

Still, more people also lined up for the privilege of paying those higher prices. In all, 4,898 residences traded hands last month, up 7.7 percent from May's sales figure and up 3.1 percent from June 2004, DataQuick's figures show.

The typical monthly mortgage payment was $2,670, up 17.3 percent from a year earlier.

Local real estate agents and economists say key reasons for why home prices keep setting records include low supplies of homes for sale compared with demand, low mortgage interest rates and continued job growth.

"One word: inventory," said Mike Allen of Allen Realty in Lake Forest. "When you have low inventory (of homes) ... you have multiple offers."

Both sales counts and prices reached new highs across Southern California last month, DataQuick reported. Led by a surge of buying activity in the Inland Empire, sales also topped a monthly record set in 1988, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 35,454 new and resale homes sold in June in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties.

After Orange County, Ventura County had the second-highest median price in the region, $584,000, followed by San Diego County's $493,000, Los Angeles County's $475,000, Riverside County's $393,000 and San Bernardino County's $322,000.

Prices in San Bernardino County had the greatest appreciation, up 30.9 percent, DataQuick reported, followed by Riverside County's 23.2 percent.

ocregister.com