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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bentway who wrote (46020)	7/17/2005 1:20:57 PM
From: Gary Martin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213177

Hi Chris...Since you seem to think longer term (based on your last post), I wanted to write and ask if you know why there hasn't been any discussion (that I can find) on this thread about the June 27th article about the I Pod business in Barron's? I'd love to hear confirming or counter arguments to it. Bill Alpert's article listed reasons why the telcos could eventually dominate the portable music segment of the business by putting larger memory into their cell phones. Doesn't that sound like a legitimate threat to Apple and the I-Pod? (Wouldn't all-in-one bundled units with phone, video and music memory appeal to many who want to reduce the number of gadgets they carry?) I understand the enthusiasm for AAPL after the excellent results they just posted, but what about 2006 and 2007? The article even lists major music companies who won't play ball with Apple and have chosen non-compatible formats for the music they publish. It's certain that Apple will innovate and continue to manufacture fine products, but as an investor/speculator all I care about is the share price. It sound's like the I-Pod could be "marginalized" as claimed by some of the upcoming competitors? I remember AAPL in the stratosphere and in the single digits as well. Which extreme, if any, might we be seeing now? (And please, no hate mail from I-Pod or AAPL enthusiasts. Everything goes in cycles no matter how wonderful things look. Sound investing means looking ahead even if unpleasant ideas might arise. Thanks.) Gary

To: bentway who wrote (46020)	7/17/2005 3:08:41 PM
From: HerbVic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213177

I think it's way too soon to evaluate the effect of Apple's announced processor change on their sales. Most people aren't even aware of the news. It'll take a while for the announcement to hit the sales figures, if it does. I agree! But, I also believe that there are a lot of people who were in the market to buy a Mac who were stopped cold by the announcement. And, that many of the so named 'Mac Faithful' entering the market subsequent to the announcement have/will put their purchase on hold until further evaluation. Since the net effect on sales would be negative, and there was three weeks of the quarter under this influence, and sales still soared, I have to conclude that the various effects, Halo, Pitchfork, etc... are in full play. That's an enormous positive! That means the delayed purchases can only drive unit sales higher when they come in. Since it is largely from the 'Mac Faithful' that deferrals would come from, the unusually high unit numbers must be from Switchers. If the switcher phenomena is being driven by the Halo Effect, it is just starting to wind up. Somewhat analogous to this division in market share between Windows and other operating systems is the Universal Gas Law and the principals of diffusion of one gas substance with another. On the one hand Windows is the container. On the other, there is OS X. The barriers to switching, such as the learning curve, investment in software and resistance to change, form the properties of the containers that prevent the individuals or molecules from escaping. What's interesting to note here is that in the mid 1600s the Belgian chemist and physician Jan Baptista van Helmont invented the word gas by altering the Greek word chaos, meaning space. When these differing markets are isolated except for random events of dual installation, there is very little diffusion (switching) for multiple reasons, some of which are listed above. The constant and random motion of the individual molecules in isolation and under no pressure do little to overcome the barriers to diffusion of one market into the other. Even pressure, in the form of viruses, trojans and spyware, do little to diffuse the differing markets. The net effect of the huge problematic gas balloon that is Windows in close proximity to the much smaller and better organized one that is OS X is that of a gas under pressure coming into contact with that of one under vacuum through a membrane barrier. The learning curve, investment in software and resistance to change barriers can only be broken down by experience with the new software from the other side, effectively bundled and highly useful software and the awareness of favorable change itself. It is only when there is the constant chaotic collision of the individual molecules of one market with that of the other that we see that the rate of diffusion increases. And that effect is characterized by the proliferation of the iTunes software and iPod hardware into the chaos that is Windows. And it has only just begun. Herb