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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (35900)	7/21/2005 3:14:03 AM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

Mish Japan RE bubble was totally different than anything presently in the U.S. and really shouldn't be used for for comparisons for what is happening in the U.S..

To: mishedlo who wrote (35900)	7/21/2005 9:31:19 AM
From: gcrispin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 306849

"You are naking the classic mistake of projecting current conditions into the future." It wouldn't be the first "classic" mistake I would be making. I thought real estate was overpriced when they were a tenth of the price they are selling for now. Others could argue that I've been wrong for the last thirty years! My view is that the real estate "crash" will be regional or very local in nature. I was speaking about where I live. The best example I can give is that the during Depression no city bonds were placed in default in SB. Rampant development is as much a problem as overleveraging. If you have restrictive local government and a small supply of housing in a desirable area, then you will not the catastrophic effects some suggest. "As for people owning their own homes, who cares?" My point is that as much as there is a great deal of speculation discussed, there are owners who haven't over-leveraged and who will not be affected. Not everyone is carrying a big mortgage, or even a mortgage, for that matter. "for that matter the last property bubble in California in the 90's" I have lived in CA for the last forty+ years. The decline in RE during the 90s was not catastrophic where I live. On a personal level, what is catastrophic to some is a healthy correction to others. Besides, in the nineties, there were very few foreclosures available in the area where I live. Most were purchased by people in the business. Do I think prices are too high? Yes. My point is that no one can predict what will happen with prices in all areas, but it is best to treat your home as just that, and not an "investment".