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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (36489)	7/21/2005 2:50:37 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Here are five points: 1) excess land for continued growth/development and high population growth in US keeps GDP and economy growing which was not possible in Japan 2) many stock market indexes worldwide breaking out to all time highs 3) dollars lost in the S&L debacle (coastal housing, everything in the oil patch,70% plunge in commercial property values nationwide and collapse in our entire banking system) rivals what will be lost in our coastal residential housing collapse and we survived 4) the world appears to be awash in too much liquidity looking for a home which puts a lid on long term rates even if we continue growing at too fast a pace 5) yield curves across every major country (except maybe Canada) already are flat and yet no signs of your coming deflation or depression Thus we need a significant backup in the long end of the yield curve to shrink multiples on all overvalued assets to cause the downturn you expect but that doesn't appear to be in the cards for a long time. Other possible scenario is if Greenspan goes way too far and a steeply inverted yield curve is the result. Then all bets are off<g>. I do not think housing is sustainable at even ZERO% interest rates. All it takes is a change in sentiment, exhaustion, terrorism or any number of other things, not necessarily a spike in rates. We have not yet seen the full effects of all of these hikes. They take 6 months or so, so the affects of at least two of those hikes has not yet been felt. It did not take mammoth hikes to kill the market in the UK, why should it be mandatory here. You listed a bunch of points many that I agree with but stretched to a conclusion that I do not think is logical from the facts given. Let me paraphrase you "Housing has not broke yet so it wont." People said the same thing about stock in March 2000. As for me, I think housing is unsustainable regardless of what interest rates do (given wage growth, outsourcing, and employment stats). Obviously it can go on longer with plenty of liquididty, but it can not go on forever so it won't. Mish