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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (22056)	7/22/2005 10:07:27 AM
From: Kirk ©	Respond to of 42834

Nice summary but why 30% of cash reserves when he advised 20 to 50%? The 20 to 30% advice was given to those in a 50:50 portfolio so they would have under performed in the 1990's but have done well in the 2000's due to bond interest. You should compare buying and holding 50:50 W5000:GNMA perhaps. I think the more aggressive investors (who would be 100% in equities, not 50% like P3) would be in P1 and P2 and follow the 30 to 50% of cash reserves into QQQQ. I'd be interested in your numbers for 30 and 50% and dividends reinvested for the buy and hold. finance.yahoo.com PRICES Date Dividend 30-Dec-04 $ 0.104 Cash Dividend 29-Dec-03 $ 0.033 Cash Dividend 30-Dec-02 $ 0.052 Cash Dividend 28-Dec-01 $ 0.044 Cash Dividend 28-Dec-00 $ 0.027 Cash Dividend Also, his call was not made on Jan 00 but on Jan 5th when the market was down some 4% or so. This will further help the buy and hold case. finance.yahoo.com Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* 7-Jan-00 11.51 11.51 11.51 11.51 0 11.04 6-Jan-00 11.19 11.19 11.19 11.19 0 10.73 5-Jan-00 11.23 11.23 11.23 11.23 0 10.77 4-Jan-00 11.23 11.23 11.23 11.23 0 10.77 3-Jan-00 11.69 11.69 11.69 11.69 0 11.21 31-Dec-99 11.78 11.78 11.78 11.78 0 11.30 FWIW, I don't follow Brinker but use asset allocation. I did a ton of selling in 1999 and 2000 and would have done more except for any additional selling put me into AMT territory (most of my tech stocks were purchased with taxable money). It is VERY HARD to quantify the tax effects of selling large blocks of securities with taxable money.

To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (22056)	7/22/2005 10:19:02 AM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42834

Lets try this: Wilshire 5000 Index Portfolio Ret (WFIVX) adjusted for dividends finance.yahoo.com 5-Jan-00 (Date for prices shown on Jan 2000 Marketimer) = $10.77 7/21/05 = $10.38 Down 3.6% My guess is 30% into QQQQ as per Brinker's advice comes out ahead and 50% into QQQQ also as per Brinker's advice comes out losing ground but I'd sure like to see your numbers to confirm or deny it. I believe David Korn and others like Brimelow have said it is pretty much a wash... if you add in the 5% he recommended his agressive investors put into TEFQX that is now down 80% or 90%... who else is agressive but those 100% in the market like his P1 or P2 followers with no allocation to bonds? FWIW, you can be at a wash but the beta of those who have a portfolio heavy in QQQQ is much higher than those who have a portfolio 100% in Wilshire5000. Thus the risk adjusted performance is lower. It might make sense to compare the beta of the different portfolios when you make comparisons too. You can't eat risk adjusted return but it is useful to see if you got extra performance for the extra risk taken.