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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Vosilla who wrote (37024)7/26/2005 8:40:22 PM
From: bcrafty  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 110194
 
John, the mere fact that he even mentioned those circumstances as a kind of a stop (Dow falling to 9500 or failure to rally strongly by early 2006)lent him more credibility as a writer to me. Although I might take issue with a few specific parts of his predictions, the fact that he says more or less "if this happens then maybe I'm wrong and will have to rethink" helps to put his position in perspective.

This mention of a stop is something I see too few people doing, not just pundits and gurus but message board writers as well. I feel that it helps the reader if the writer shows that he is aware of the limitations of his position, and how certain circumstances might change his position rather than to just have the writer flatly state his position, tacitly implying "I'll be correct to some extent, one of these days, whenever that is."

My guess is still new bull markets in what was hot in the 1970's along with new innovations in tech and life sciences . . .

I feel that there will almost always be a hot market in certain areas of tech, even if for only limited periods. Just as the computer hardware and software makers, chipmakers, storage providers, and networkers, drove part of the late 90s tech boom, later this decade I think nanotech, Wi-Max, and certain biotech developments to help drive the next tech boom.

. . .along with the long anticipated coastal housing fall that will be a long drawn out affair except for the frothiest of property types in select markets in an environment of unrelenting stagflation and higher rates for the next decade I agree completely. Real estate values in St. Louis, Indianapolis or Memphis, for instance, will be much less severe than NYC, LA, or Florida. And rates have little choice but to go up, but the questions of how high, how quickly, and for what reason will continue to be the subject of great debate.

On a more specific related topic, can anyone here help me on this? Since I don't visit this board frequently, I've probably missed a discussion on this: when the real estate bubble finally begins its slow leak, how exactly do people here plan to play it in the market? Here's a post on this issue that I wrote about a year ago:

Message 20545636