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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (37093)	7/27/2005 11:14:44 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

Investors Intelligence 7/27 Bulls 55.9% Bears 22.6%

To: ild who wrote (37093)	7/27/2005 3:53:06 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Date: Wed Jul 27 2005 15:37 trotsky (JD@Cumberland) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved it has a sizeable ( over 3m. oz. ) and economic deposit. it's going to be developed, but the IRR was far lower than the market expected due to escalating mine construction costs. as a result, the shares are cheap and will provide excellent leverage to a rising PoG ( of course they also harbor significant risk should the PoG fall ) . that's it in a nutshell. imo it's likely a good buy at current levels....seems the stock has put in a bottom at the 1 - 1.10 level ( CLG, the US listed version ) . that's also where one should probably set one's stop in case it doesn't work out. Date: Wed Jul 27 2005 13:41 trotsky (Hambone@correlations) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved yes, it's a little bit more involved than just that, but the basic premise is that the correlation differs over different time frames. this is mainly due to the fact that gold stocks are a coincident indicator of the yield spread while the broader stock market is lagging it considerably. put differently, gold stocks react bullishly immediately to loosening monetary conditions, while the stock market at large is more preoccupied with the economic conditions surrounding a loosening of monetary policy ( i.e. the recession that usually prompts it ) . this explains the long term negative correlation. the short term positive correlation has more to do with general sentiment and market liquidity issues. therefore one can usually observe that when the stock market enters a longer term down trend, the gold stocks in turn enter a longer term uptrend, but the biggest moves in this uptrend tend to coincide with the upward corrections in the broader market.