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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (127978)	7/27/2005 4:49:23 PM
From: aladin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 793887

neolib, Wow, the Indians are a ponzi scheme and the brilliant Euro's and Japanese are 'out in front' looking at an aging environment. Cool, but completely wrong argument. Just 4 decades ago brilliant Chinese central planners engineered a 27% drop in GDP in one year. They also solved a bunch of aging issues by getting rid of some excess population. Time will tell if they get it better this time - but its only been 16 years since Tiananmen. And of course of all of this assumes none of their books are cooked. At least Japan and Europe have a social safety net, they just don't know how to fund it mid century. I never hung my hopes on population growth - those are your words, but a negative demographic trend is evidence of a failed society. John

To: neolib who wrote (127978)	7/27/2005 10:33:01 PM
From: Peter Dierks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793887

When I started this line, I was discussing the growth of the key demographic in China. In the US the most economically productive period of ones life is supposed to be 30 to 45 (plus 1 year per decade indexed from 1980). Without seeing current demographics of China, I have to rely on a few years out of date data, but that was indicative of a booming economy through 2030 and beyond. "Hanging one's hopes on population growth is a ponzi scheme." Except that when the key demographic of 35 to 45 as a large number of people, economies always seem to boom. "there is no reason not to be productive later in life," Except that once the kids are out of the house people stop spending their last dollar. The velocity of money decreases. Basic banking economics teaches that money supply tells us nothing until you know the velocity of money. Few revolutions causes contractions in the economy.