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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: neolib who wrote (127992)	7/27/2005 9:00:14 PM
From: aladin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793886

neolib, You were the one who put the Chinese on pedestal and used the plural decades. I am simply calling you on it :-) As far as slightly negative growth, Germany, Italy and Japan are expected to drop in population by over 15% by mid century. The Chinese get the effect a bit later (barring big changes). These population studies are generally available on the UN's web site. You could stand to read a bit. As for any other countries matching the wonderful Chinese, well who else dropped so far in the 60's and 70's? When you reach rock bottom its not hard to show improvement. Having said that, I agree that the last 15 years have been stellar and my hope is that it will continue as will the liberalization of Chinese society. John Update: A record number of Japanese women are unmarried and childless, leading the country perilously close to a childless society. The country has actually coined a new term to describe the phenomenon - 'shoshika,' which means "a society without children," according to a BBC report. The population, if current trends continue, will be reduced by 20 percent by mid-century, with nearly 50 percent of those being elderly -- an "impossible" situation for maintaining the health and pension systems.

To: neolib who wrote (127992)	7/27/2005 10:44:17 PM
From: Peter Dierks	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 793886

"population growth either through higher birth rates or more immigration. Both approaches are aimed at more workers shorter term, and regrettably, more retires longer terms, where more population growth is needed to deal with the delayed problem." Immigrants on average arrive at about age 33. Shortly after they arrive on these shores they enter the most productive period of their lives. Immigrants do not always have the experience and training to be highly skilled labor. They often compensate for this by working multiple jobs. Once their kids are old enough to start leaving the nest, their immediate need for income diminishes. Even the least skilled when they arrive have skills that benefit economic productivity a decade later. The best way to sustain a growing economy is to have mild sustained population growth through a consistent means. Birth is probably preferred, but gaps can be supplemented with immigrants thirty years later. When called for, I prefer legal immigration with a path towards citizenship.