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Politics : Welcome to Slider's Dugout -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bmillermn who wrote (278)	7/28/2005 6:24:19 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50420

bmillerman: Thanks, I would have liked to have seen the Rally extend another 10-20 points, but we have to be willing to take what the market give us and to be willing to "take it" and exit whenever we see something changing on the horizon. I think the first pre-requisite for making this a successful trade, was to NOT already have been fully loaded going into this washout. Knowing a bottom when you see one is important, but it kind of looses it's profitability factor - if you rode a full portfolio all the way down to get there... I had been sitting in what for me personally, is my minimum core portfolio weighted position for goldstocks in this market environment, a 10-12% Portfolio weighting - re: Message 21227741 [“ Nothing wrong with trading in & out of the downward slope that appears to be coming...maintaining a "CORE" only position on Gold/PM's. For me - that's a 10-12% portfolio weighting in this geopolitical environment.”] ==================================================================================== If a Trader is going to make a “Portfolio Weighted” Trade (and not that I recommend that to anyone else) one had better have a clear vision & a strategy of where the ultimate bottom / re-entry point will be – re: Message 21235787 [“ …PATIENCE will be rewarded….When sectors get shaken out... there arises opportunity out of crisis…1/2 way between former 150 resistance level & prior HUI 190 pullback is HUI 170.- couldn't argue against that as a prudent reload level. “] fwiw: We only had 2 days where the HUI closed under 170…Friday May 13th at HUI 168.05 …and Monday May 16th at 166.46. I’ll take that HUI 170 bottom call to the bank anytime. ====================================================================================== Due to what I viewed as the complete washout of “both” Investor Sentiment and Shareprices, as well as the deep value being confirmed by an extreme reading in the HUI:GOLD Ratio… I thought the odds were very good for an immediate “V” bounce off of the eventual bottom… where ever "the" bottom ended up being and as such, levered my initial re-entry with “call options”… and this ended up being the most profitable part of the trade for me – re: Message 21278593 [“...I "LOADED" up on "CALLS" Today on all my Fav' Goldstocks”] ================================================================================== I think it’s also equally as important to have an Exit Strategy in place, as it is an “Entry” Strategy. You really have to be correct on both, to ultimately bank any major gains. re: having an Exit Strategy: Message 21291929 [“ If Gold just trends here & the HUI merely closes that divergent gap...we've got 30% upside. “] Almost got that 30%, my exit locked in a nice + 25% Rally in the Index… which offered many 30% to 50% in Individual Stocks + multiples on that via Call Option Leverage. ============================================================================== Friday May 13th and the following Monday, May 16th were the only 2 days the HUI closed under 170 on this move. I had been scaling into the bottom and coming out of that 2 day dip below HUI 170 - on May 18th I reached an "all in" position for where I wanted to be - a 67.5% Portfolio Weighting to Gold stocks: Message 21334379 [“...well, I basically finished the day - "all in" as far as what a full position is for me here in this environment. - 67.5% total portfolio weighting long Goldstocks. I'll keep relatively tight stops on half of that“] ===================================================================================== As a sidebar: Anytime you choose to step into a deep washout... if when making a "bottom call" and a re-entry and you don't get the following responses....be afraid, very afraid (vbg): Here was a classic: [ " ...with so many "gurus" on the same side of the PM boat, I'm afraid it will tip over and sink! Recently they're smelling more bottoms than a minimum wage nursery worker. I say, "Show me the money!" The HUI break through the BB midlines appears to be, alas, only another porpoise jump and dive on the continuing way down, just a little stronger than the previous three"] They very next morning after that was posted - the HUI gap opened up +6 points which took the rally to it's mid-point, standing atop a 20 point move. ...but, that didn't deter the naysayers (vbg) The next classic was this: [" It's show me the money time for the HUI. Were at resistance now “] That comment came off of that straightline move from HUI 165 to 186 and the gap up open. After that was posted, the HUI immediately rallied for another 10 points to HUI 195 over the next 3 days ! ...and straight to it's ultimate high on this move of HUI 205. A 40 Point “V-Bottom Rally” off of the bottom – all in 20 trading days. The lesson learned for traders here is very simple. If the pack is running alongside you when you buy, OR when you sell - be afraid... very afraid. Slider`