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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (66712)	7/30/2005 12:22:02 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

24 months sounds good. Or by the time ROW works out what is actually going on in PRC. After the consolidating recession/depression in China, no-one in the West will want to touch China investments, but that will be the best time?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (66712)	7/30/2005 2:21:14 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Overcapacity : I expect a number of countries will throw up tariff and non-tariff barriers in an attempt to avoid having their local industries gutted. Twenty years ago, the EU would thrown up big barriers. I don't know what they will do now. Japan should have an interesting response - they will take the China sourced parts, then try to keep their domestic suppliers alive. As for the plants they have set up in other Asian countries, will they abandon them or try to find a way to keep them on life support ? ****** I expect there is still a little elasticity of demand for most consumer goods, so as prices get pushed down a little more unit volumes will go up. This will create more demand for raw materials. I expect we will see the resource countries - Canada, Austrailia, Chile, New Zealand and to soem degree South Africa and Brazil do well.