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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (66963)	8/4/2005 9:45:38 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Wow, that sounds very dramatic - housing bubble bursts, everyone covered with &*^% . Like the dot com blow up ? Maybe, but I think more like the slow leak of air from an automobile tire - call it the Japan model. There are some enormous debts - in RMB, Yen, and USD and even Euros - that need to be reduced relative to the productive capacity of the various economies. So rather than set of a series of competitive devaluations of each currency against each other, I think the relative values of each currency will wiggle a little against the others as their value is reduced against real goods. Imagine a young lady trying to get into a pair of seriously tight jeans...wiggle, pull, exhale, jerk, wiggle again...this can be very entertaining. As a proxy for real value, we could use a widely traded essential industrial commodity with an enormous liquid market which is consumed - let's call it oil. Or we could use a decorative minor metal with a very small market which is heavily regulated and influenced by central banks, hedge funds, and other shady enterprises.