Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (37988)	8/6/2005 1:32:23 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Interest rates increasing in the US relative to Japan and Europe supports the USD, that is until the big US asset and credit Bubbles and thus economy hits the wall. That's what we are trying to time here, or more importantly timing when the cognoscenti figure it all out. Mr. Perry's comment here on "unbelievably concerned borrowers" is simply absurd, they are trapped and know it. I'm not sure how a ten year or higher fixed saves these borrowers a dime now? Interest Rates Begin To Bite Into Housing Bubble thehousingbubble2.blogspot.com Annette Haddad at the LA Times reports that interest rates are starting to worry borrowers. "Rising mortgage rates are renewing concerns among investors, who this week drove down the stocks of real estate-related companies amid concerns that higher rates could hamper the nation's sizzling housing boom." "Investors and others worried about recent rate increases 'are so short-term focused, it's unbelievable,' said Michael Perry, chief executive of mortgage lender IndyMac Bank in Pasadena." "On Friday, after the release of a stronger-than-expected job report, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to a nearly four-month high of 4.39%. That triggered another sell-off in real estate-related stocks. For example, shares of D.R. Horton Inc., the nation's largest home builder, tumbled 5% on Friday. Stocks of mortgage lenders and real estate investment trusts also sagged. An index of housing stocks is off 6.5% from its all-time high a week ago." "West Los Angeles mortgage broker Mitch Ohlbaum said Friday that he had been fielding more calls in recent days from clients concerned about how rising rates will affect their loan payments. Prospective home buyers also are concerned that higher rates will make purchases more costly, he said. "Homeowners with home equity lines of credit, which are tied to short-term rates, are starting to see their payments increase, in some cases by 45% over the last year, Ohlbaum said." "'People are calling and saying 'I'm nervous because the Fed keeps raising,' he said. He is telling clients to pick loans with at least a 10-year fixed period, because anything shorter will mean higher payments sooner. Borrowers 'need enough time to get past the next cycle,' he said. 'Rates are only going to keep rising and homes won't be appreciating as much.'"

To: loantech who wrote (37988)	8/7/2005 10:11:59 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Ild's is overseas right now so don't know if he is able to update the Rydex PM cash flow numbers, but they have been showing bullish divergence (money has come out of the fund, yet prices are firm, and even rallying). idorfman.com stockcharts.com[l,a]daclniay[pd20,2!b200][vc60][iUc20!Lf]&pref=G We are also in the grip of bullish gold seasonality from now until early October. Spec activity in the gold COTs looks very restrained (91,979 long to 106,562) given the rally of the last week. In the previous gold trading patterns, investors in the Goldtrackers ETF, accumulated on the dips (412-425), and paused on the rallies (over 435). So far this time, gold holdings continues to pile up in GLD on the rally. Held 181.51 tonnes at the July 18 reaction low, 191.38 tonnes on 8/5: streettracksgoldshares.com I think I smell a big breakout to new highs over the next two months. jessel.100megsfree3.com