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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (38072)	8/7/2005 10:43:03 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 110194

Krugman thinks the bust has started. Krugman: That Hissing Sound nytimes.com I added a graph to show how previous busts deflate: angrybear.blogspot.com

To: russwinter who wrote (38072)	8/7/2005 10:45:11 PM
From: CalculatedRisk	Respond to of 110194

U.S. economy running on fumes? cbc.ca EXCERPT: "We acknowledge that we have not been bullish enough on the U.S. economy - we weren't exactly calling for a recession in 2005 but at the start of the year we were looking for 3.0 per cent growth and it looks like we are going to see something closer to 3.5 per cent," he wrote in a recent commentary. "It always seems as if a three per cent or lower number is going to be in store the next quarter and then what happens is we get sideswiped by some unexpected 'event' that provides a significant lift." If it's not the housing boom, it's a bonanza of auto sales incentives or a surge in capital spending or purchases of transportation equipment. "Outside of the events that are non-recurring but always seem to find a replacement ... the economy has actually been growing at a sub-three-per-cent pace for the past six quarters, or almost a full percentage point below the posted rates," Rosenberg says.

To: russwinter who wrote (38072)	8/8/2005 8:38:34 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Russ, do you or anyone have a chart showing the weekly changes of the MBAA loan app survey? Dating back to 2002 would be great because I like to see the refi numbers before the refi mania. I am wondering if we are going to have a big drop this Wednesday. That could be a confirmation of downtrend. Regarding downtown, I have not looked into it but I am guessing that sales of new units should still be higher than resales. I am not sure if you are aware but most projects have anti-flipping clauses. Basically, if a buyer sells within 1 yr (usually), the builder gets to keep the extra profit, if any. In addition, some projects insist on owner-occupancy and cannot be rented. As more units come out of this anti flipping period, they may be hitting the market as units for sale or for rent. We shall see how Downtown San Diego handles this stress test. Ramsey