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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Vosilla who wrote (38105)	8/8/2005 11:19:12 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

We will see how some of these budding landlords feel when they have to repair some property they own that has been ripped to shreds by some mentally ill person, or meth addict. Or as nearly bad from an emotional point of view, having to put a family of struggling Mexicans and all their belongs out on the sidewalk, because of non payment of rent. I was able to largely avoid that kind of experience, but only through almost paranoid and fanatical diligence, a trait that is sorely lacking with this crowd of speculators.

To: John Vosilla who wrote (38105)	8/8/2005 11:26:21 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

since at least Cisco was growing it's top line 35% a year and you could use a 10 year discounted cash flow model to justify the current value the reason that circle failed to square was that of course CSCO wouldn't keep growing at 35%. and in fact a lot of that 35% historical was artificial demand enabled by the stock bubble (more telcos and tech cos coming online, thanks to easy capital, thus boosting CSCO's revs). once the bubble went away, the demand went away. and CSCO fell about 90% peak to trough, in fact losing more market-cap dollars than any company in history. if you look for the similar unsustainable circularity in RE, i think it's that RE, like the tech bubble, artificially gooses the economy at large, drawing demand forward. i think even most stock bears did not forecast the severity and rapidity with which the Nasdung would be taken out and shot. likewise, i think it is hard for us to forecast how bad the housing market will get, because a lot of other things (systemic economy things) will simultaneously get worse, thereby exacerbating the downside just as they have the upside.