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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Taikun who wrote (67218)8/11/2005 3:28:27 AM
From: elmatador  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 74559
 
"oil could be ten times $75, or $750" Cannot. There's a certain price which make more atractive other sources. They will kick in and oil price won't go beyond that.

Very simplistically:

Oil USD75? Low income people start curtailing travel, selling bigger and buying smaller cars.

People will look to thermostats and amek sure they will not heat for nothig.

A few companies start feeling the pinch harder than other: airlines and aluminum, cement, transportation companies...

The price where it goes beyond, I believe, is USD100 USD120 per barrel. At this level, governments start pursuing some alternatives or programs to curtail oil consumption.

It can reach USD100 USD120 soon when the Iran nuclear program have to be dealt with.



To: Taikun who wrote (67218)8/11/2005 8:56:16 AM
From: Moominoid  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74559
 
750 makes no sense :) Unless the Fed adopts Weimar style printing pronto. I don't even think GS target of 105 will be reached in this period from looking at the charts and the vibe on real oil availability.