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To: Shack who wrote (123139)8/20/2005 4:53:51 PM
From: Henry J Costanzo  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
<<.... a 4 year old trend suddenly turning..>>

Thanks....those last two posts of yours particularly interesting.

Just want to say I was simply passing on FWIW those "sentiment" comments from Barron's. As you know, I hardly know what VIX is.....let alone comment on it.....and same with most other "sentiment indicators"....

Also, not at all sure that what I'm looking for when I say "topping" here amounts to "a 4 year trend turning".....But that underscores that I guess I really need to do some work on how much of a decline I would be looking for, and how it would fit into the longer-term trend picture.

And to further clarify where I stand.......I trust you are very clear that I do NOT have any views which would warrant entering any BETS against any opposing views of yours..!!....LOL

PS... Re IBM, think I posted (or PMed to somebody) call for filling gap and moving to 84 area after ascending Apr-Jul triangle breakout.....I've been assuming it's still facing quite a bit of R around the 84/5 area........but Friday's action and volume very interesting.....and, as we say "bears watching".....g



To: Shack who wrote (123139)8/21/2005 12:01:32 PM
From: skinowski  Respond to of 209892
 
SMH is still set to go either way... but those divergences are enough to keep a bear nervous... near term.

Is it ever easy?

stockcharts.com[p,a]faclyyay[d21][pb50!b200][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9][j57002274,y]&listNum=1



To: Shack who wrote (123139)8/21/2005 12:16:24 PM
From: skinowski  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 209892
 
Yes, IBM. Ray's favorite indicator - Aroon - a couple of days ago turned negative - maybe prematurely so, as Friday's action suggests.

In the wiggles, Friday's IBM rally is a sharp 3-waver -- but if it makes new highs tomorrow, it might be a good idea to start paying attention. Otoh, a move under 82 could be a sign of renewed weakness.

stockcharts.com[e,a]dacayiay[dd][pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut!ua12,26,9!uv25!lg!ll14][J50947555,Y]&pref=G