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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (39703)	8/25/2005 12:28:08 PM
From: Umunhum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

As for oil prices...Rising oil prices are very much deflationary as long as wages do not rise to cover the oil rise. It takes discretionary spending out of consumer hands and it is bad for businesses (most of which can not pass the costs on) and will cost jobs in a slowing economy. This is one of the craziest statements you have ever made and you seem to keep repeating it. Deflation (defined by Websters) A persistent decrease in the level of consumer prices or a persistent increase in the purchasing power of money because of a reduction in available currency and credit. Rising oil prices are very much inflationary!

To: mishedlo who wrote (39703)	8/25/2005 4:10:50 PM
From: Real Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

Looks like bond prices and Fed actions are very correlated. This is not the first time a spike in Fed securities lending and Fed coupon passes follows any spike in LT rates bullandbearwise.com finance.yahoo.com In fact, it has been the case with every one of them. Is this free bond market discounting deflation? I doubt it. 6% Inflation, according to honest CPI without hedonics (thanks to these guys who go through BLS/BS numbers) gillespieresearch.com One can have predictions about deflation when the housing bubble pops, but so far those have yet to materialize. Japan had record savings, and deflation. Seems to contradict common sense, as their savings should have been inflated away. Go figure. 8.4 Trillion real value for 50x or so levered derivative instruments (mostly credit) shows the world is indeed a very different place today. money.cnn.com We may see deflation when s. hits the fan, but it's not here now.