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Pastimes : Hurricane and Severe Weather Tracking -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (2210)	8/27/2005 1:07:37 AM
From: Patricia Trinchero	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 26015

Your remarks are basically the same comments my co-worker mutters. That article you linked was an eye opener...........what a scary scenario. My husband and I visited the city a few years back and took a city tour. The tour guide made a big point of showing us the canals and talked of the potential for flooding from a major hurricane. Most of the forecasters are now warning of the potential for the hit on N.O. I have a feeling they are being aggressive in an attempt to avoid a catastrophic loss of life if Katrina's current path stays on target for the mouth of the Miss. This is one case where it might pay to be on the extra cautious side. I too would leave town tomorrow if all things remain the same with the projected path. There will be people who will wait too long and won't escape. Conservative forecasters are claiming this storm has the potential to become a huge,catastrophic disaster. They should be taken seriously. Many people played down the low CAT 1 classification of Katrina in southern FLorida. They were unpleasantly surprised over the damage it caused. Let's hope it doesn't play out and New Orleans is spared. Everyone in the area should pay close attention to the weather stations for the next few days and closely follow the developments as they occur.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (2210)	8/27/2005 3:48:06 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 26015

As the Katrina intensifies, the area of the storm which could cause a catastrophe in New Orleans will tend to get larger, so Katrina does not have to come as close. Also as Katrina gets larger, the outer wind bands will be further in front of the eye. This can mean a little less time to evacuate before auto travel becomes difficult. I was reading one of the NOAA discussions of Katrina by Avila, who seems to be one of the senior forecasters who deal with the more serious situations. It doesn't take much reading to detect a tone that this Hurricane can become really intense with the hot water. A number of other weather people have a bit more strain in their voice and manner than they did for some CAT 3 Hurricanes last year. Has anyone else noticed this ? ************* excerpted from NOAA / Avila's 11pm est 8/26 discussion of Katrina - note the gasoline analogy, and the inclusion of the most aggresive intensity predicition - 131 knots **************** THIS IS THE TYPICAL PATTERN OBSERVED IN INTENSE HURRICANES. IN ADDITION...KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE WARM LOOP CURRENT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH IS LIKE ADDING HIGH OCTANE FUEL TO THE FIRE. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS KATRINA TO 115 KNOTS...OR A CATEGORY FOUR ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND CALLS FOR 124 KNOTS AND 922 MB. THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE IS EVEN MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING KATRINA TO 131 KNOTS.