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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (68199)	8/28/2005 5:56:03 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Katrina's previous path toward the middle of panhandle Florida would have threaten almost no energy facilities, the present path about 220 miles West will threaten about 1/3 of US Gulf production, more than Ivan, because the path is west of Ivan's path, and the Hurricane likley to be stronger. Right now, chances are about > 15% that New Orleans ends up under water. That can result in insurance claims of about 100 billion USD. ***nostalgic wandering annecdote goes here**** I briefly lived in suburban New Orleans as a small child. Having no car, I could not drive to down town to enjoy the culture... When it would rain hard, my friends and I would pick crawfish out of the gutters that ran to the storm drains on our street. We would put them in old empty Mayonaise jars and other left over containers. People, mostly always black, would drive by to get the crawfish, and some times we would get paid a nickle or a dime if we had a jar with 4 or 5 big ones. Most of the time we were happy to give them away, happy to do something useful and fun, at the same time playing in the warm rain and the mud. A nickle would by a popsicle, so this was pretty good, a dime even better. Nowadays, these are called "Prawns" and cost a lot more.... ** As whitepine has pointed out, only the Canadian energy plays have near zero exposure to Katrina. **** I really don't like the idea of New Orleans being destroyed. Besides property, there a many people who won't leave, or will wait until what they think is the last minute to leave, which will have pasted hours ago. In a way New Orleans is like Atlantis, if Atlantis was built 10 feet below sea level, and protected by levees made of soft mud, and with a huge river running the middle of town. Living next to the San Andreas and Hayward fault lines, I cannot understand that idea of urban planning.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (68199)	8/29/2005 1:47:14 AM
From: Taikun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

<Ms. Katrina’s possibilities were that bullish for energy> While some hedge funds will work to drive up the price, others may use this as an opportune moment to exit positions. Since we have little experience with a hurricane of this magnitude, there is a chance the effects will have some permanence. Whatever supply slack the shoulder season was going to create, if this takes 10% offline (between refineries and producers) that will do it. The SPR will have little impact if the repairs take months.