Hi KLP--
Before you read this about King County's Emergency
Management director's thoughts--
What would you consider his main or number one threat
to this area and then read and see if you agree....
I was a bit surprised but thinking later he might be
right.
A moment with ... Eric Holdeman, director of Emergency Management
By KATHY GEORGE
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER
Monday, June 6, 2005
When disaster strikes, Eric Holdeman's agency is responsible for managing the Seattle area's response, including coordinating paramedic, firefighter and police responses. Holdeman is the director of the King County Office of Emergency Management.
Your job is, in a sense, to fear the worst. How do you sleep at night?
"You're not the first person to ask that question.
"You have to go to bed thinking you've done everything possible to be prepared, but knowing that everything that could be done has not been accomplished, based on time and resources available. Sometimes, nobody is interested until there's a problem."
You recently said the worst scenario for us here -- more dire than an earthquake -- is a pandemic flu outbreak. Why?
"The ground may shake in a long quake for up to four minutes ... but a pandemic flu could go on for weeks or months. It would impact everybody. The mental impact of it would be really significant. And potentially the number of deaths from it could far exceed an earthquake. And just the emotional and economic impact of a pandemic flu is going to just be tremendous. The idea is, it will go through kind of in waves. ... It might take two or more years. The other big issue, you know, is: Who dies from the flu? Most people think that older people are at greater risk. However, if it's like the 1918 Spanish pandemic, it impacted younger people rather than older people."
How many of King County's 1.8 million residents could die from it?
"The 1918 influenza pandemic is estimated to have killed 20 to 40 million people worldwide, and in the U.S. it was 500,000 to 600,000. Ten times as many Americans died of the flu than died in World War I. In King County, the estimate is up to -- and I consider this a conservative estimate -- in excess of 2,500 people would die."
We've heard alarming predictions about a 6.7-magnitude quake hitting the Seattle fault, killing 1,600 people, injuring 24,000, destroying 10,000 buildings and causing 130 fires. You must be kidding.
"I'd say that's a very realistic scenario. It was not done by some wild-eyed fanatics, but is a conservative estimate. ... It could be much greater than that."
How much greater?
"What the folks who did that study wanted to do is not make it the worst case possible, so that people would throw up their hands and say, 'There's nothing we can do.' ...
"I think the maximum credible event is a 7.3 -- it's eight times as much energy released (as a 6.7), which intensifies the shaking."
A recent federal list of the nation's most threatening volcanoes included Washington's Mount St. Helens, Mount Rainier, Mount Baker, Glacier Peak and Mount Adams. What if one of them blows?
"The one that we're most concerned about is Mount Rainier. And the most significant impact for Western Washington would be mudflows ... coming off the various river valleys. The most at-risk area for the mountain is the northwest side (Orting, Sumner, Puyallup valley) and in a worst-case scenario all the way to the Duwamish. It could go right over Emerald Downs. If you just think about all the infrastructure that's been built there, it's significant."
What would happen to the infrastructure?
"Bye-bye. ... Those areas impacted could not be rebuilt immediately, due to the potential hazard of successive mudflows. Think what the property values would be ... and there's no insurance for land movement."
What can our emergency management system do about volcanic threats?
"The key piece is to provide adequate warning so that people are not killed or injured ... because there's no stopping the mudflow. You can't build a dam, put in Jersey barriers, all that stuff. All our emphasis has been on warning people to ensure that they can evacuate a danger area and live to rebuild another day."
The most dreaded emergency in King County is a terrorist attack, according to your agency's survey of residents last fall. How would you rate our local preparedness?
"I would say nationally, definitely above average, just because of all the time and effort that's gone into this topic ... and our regional approach to being prepared to respond to it. Many times, we're held up as a national model as to how to be working together as a region."
The Federal Emergency Management Agency has actually lost money and staffing since the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. What about local funding -- will any Seattleites die because of misallocated money?
"Oooo. Oh, you know it's interesting ... FEMA has lost missions and funding. The shift has been to an emphasis on Homeland Security (terrorism). Our approach has been an all-hazards one, meaning it could be flu, it could be flooding, it could be volcanoes, it could be an earthquake, it could be an airplane falling out of the sky. ... We're trying to ensure that we don't lose capability, and that the Homeland Security funding that's being provided helps protect and prepare us for terrorism but also enhances our ability to respond to other events."
What would people learn from attending today's Town Hall meeting at Emerald Downs?
"It provides an opportunity for them to come and ask questions and get them answered, like you're doing now."
How prepared are we, the people?
"People are saying they are prepared. But when we question them further, they've actually done very little. They may have a flashlight somewhere. They may have stored water for Y2K. ... I really think people are overrating how prepared they are."
Where would they go for advice on how to be prepared?
"Our Web site would be a good place to go. That's metrokc.gov/prepare."
TOWN HALL MEETING
Homeland security and emergency preparedness are the topics of a Town Hall meeting to be hosted by the King County Council starting at 10 a.m. today at the Emerald Downs racetrack, 2300 Emerald Downs Drive, Auburn. Besides Holdeman, speakers will include the King County sheriff, a Homeland Security official and an assistant chief of Seattle police.
P-I reporter Kathy George can be reached at 206-448-8334 or kathygeorge@seattlepi.com
seattlepi.nwsource.com |
