Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: skinowski who wrote (123850)	9/10/2005 11:10:08 AM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

The chart set up certainly looks set for a fall to me. Dow looks like it is completing a B wave or wave 2. And the macro situation doesn't go against there being a fall. And here is my analysis on somewhat similar lines: Message 21690164 "We have a rare Fibonacci double phi mate turn date window and a Fibonacci cluster window from September 12th through September 22nd (refer to last weekend's issue no. 209), which looks like a perfect setup for 2005's version of the autumn plunge. Get ready." Sounds good whatever it means :) I guess the number of days since some critical points all cluster up? Yeah 2003 and 2004 hardly have a crash. He also defines "crash" differently to most people. Usually "crash" is a large percentage fall in one day. no?

To: skinowski who wrote (123850)	9/10/2005 11:16:17 AM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

I think he's really stretching that theory in 2004 and especially 2003.

To: skinowski who wrote (123850)	9/10/2005 4:06:55 PM
From: bcrafty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

ski, I agree with Shack and Moon about the author's thesis and diction. His opening sentence is a bit misleading, or at least poorly worded, but probably achieved his desired effect of being a "glittering generality" although I feel that even people who are selling a service should avoid using rhetorical fallacies as a means to lure subscribers. The Dow Industrials have declined sharply every Autumn for the past eight years in a row . . . The history more accurately stated would be: "For at least part of every autumn in the past eight years The Dow Industrials have seen a continuation of declines that began in midsummer" but that sentence doesn't quite grab the reader as his, does it? I guess the fact that in three of those years the market ended higher than it was before those declines started didn't fit his overall thesis so he leaves out that information. Oh, well - As Mark Twain once said "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics." <g/ng> Also, to agree with David, I think that most people use the word "crash" to mean a more substantial and longer lasting decline than he does in his usage. But I've seen all sorts of usages of that word that are even more different: once one of our boardmembers said his stock "crashed" intraday when it fell suddenly from 55 to 52 even although it fully recovered an hour or so later. To each his own, but as long as we have words with widely variable meanings, the author's would be better served by choosing words or terms that at least avoid the inevitable connotations such as those that go with "crash" whether they are are selling a service or not.

To: skinowski who wrote (123850)	9/10/2005 4:56:35 PM
From: bcrafty	Respond to of 209892

ski, I go so carried away with how McHugh had written his article that I forgot to comment about the gist of it, that a decline of at least 4% lies in the weeks ahead (for whatever reason). Although, at this time, I see more technical evidence to support the bulls rather than bears for the intermediate term, one might consider the potential impact of the upcoming FOMC on 9/20. The rise of the past week, supposedly based on temporarily lower oil prices and the idea that the Fed might temporarily stop hiking interest rates in the face of on economy that might be slowed by Katrina, might come to a stop then if the Fed goes ahead with its continuation of hikes anyway. Coincidentally, the FOMC meeting comes squarely within the "rare Fibonacci double phi mate turn date window and a Fibonacci cluster window from September 12th through September 22nd."