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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: orkrious who wrote (37183)	9/14/2005 9:05:54 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 116555

>>when brokers went belly up in the 30s did people lose their stock if it was held as a book entry?<< Yes, frequently....they didn't have the SEC around then, remember, and there were lots of bucket shops and shoestring operations (not unlike some of the internet brokerages we see today!<G>)

To: orkrious who wrote (37183)	9/14/2005 11:35:43 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116555

Lurkers from Earlie: Starting to feel that as an investor, you "really don't have what it takes"? Don't understand what the current 10 year note problem is all about? Not able to name any "derivatives" beyond puts and calls, never mind understand where they fit? Feel like a "has-been" investor? You are not alone But does this mean that you should cease running your own portfolio and leave it to the fund managers to run your dough? I think NOT and I hold this view because investing isn't about math whiz kids in $2,000 suits directing computer-based trading programs, it is about being aware of where the basic economic trends appear to be taking us and disregarding the braying herd. Of course much of the time, trends may be pointing in opposite directions, hence the investment decisions are difficult. But is such the case today? This observer thinks otherwise. Too many basic trends are all starting to line up as if they were iron filings in close proximity to a magnet..... and unfortunately, far too many of them appear to be pointing "south". Here are samples of "Southern Cross" seekers. If your list of "North Star" seekers is longer and stronger, then by all means "buy and hold". (g) - Insider selling is off the graph, has been for many months and is intensifying. Has betting against the insiders ever been a good strategy? - PEs appear a bit elevated these days? Not to worry as "the charts still look good" (and a big raspberry to thugs like MB who suggest that "charts chart trends and trends last until they don't"). And whatever you do, don't listen to such old "has-beens" like Warren Buffet or Sir John Templeton who "can't find value in the current markets". - Finding it hard to sleep at nights, due to the racket provided by the Fed's 24/7 money printing presses? Do we as investors have a reasonable understanding as to WHY the Fed is so busy? - While it gets beaten to death, DEBT levels really are "historic" in the good old USA,... so historic that even a pet rabbit understands that those debts exceed the total value of the whole darned country and that they will NEVER be repaid. An old fashioned idea of course, but when debt is repudiated, doesn't someone's net assets get trashed? And when the actual cathartic act gets underway, might it seem far-fetched to conceive that similarly denominated assets or even a noble currency like the green back might get tarred by the broad black brush? - What happens when lenders no longer "extend" "non-performing" loans (irrespective of whether it is government, corporate or consumer)? - Know of ANY pension plans that are "onside"? Know many folk coming up on retirement? - Know of ANY level of government that isn't running deficits? And what is likely to occur if any one of these organizations "hits the wall"? Anarchy anyone? - Looked at corporate accounting lately? Seen any "pro-forma" results out there? But of course, all those directors and officers now have to "sign off" and "certify" that the books are transparent and clean. LOL. - U.S. GDP look good to you? And how would it look without the "made-in-America" hedonic pricing and obscene BLS inflation accounting? - Happy with the employment situation? How would it look if all those who have stopped looking for a job were counted or if that Alice-in-Wonderland "birth-death ratio" sleight-of-hand was eliminated? And of course, no one ought to be worried about all the software engineers who currently find employment in Wendy's or in house flipping. - Like the Real estate bubble? Love the consumer "ATM" action it provides? And when it ends, can one conjure up any "fall-out" concerns? And might the R.E. stats. suggest that the "end" of this bubble is near at hand? - Any worries about escalating costs of offshore military actions? And what happens to "Hummer" militaries in a "Smart Car" economy? Got lots of use for rusting subs? - Invested in a fund that is concerned with fundamentals rather than "momentum investing"? Did ANY momentum investors do well in ANY past bear market? - Want to file for bankruptcy protection? Can't get filed before October 17? Hello serfdom (in the "Land of Liberty and Freedom no less). Do Katrina's victims understand "irony"? - Any concerns about WHO owns US debt? China you say? Good thing this could never become a ring in a bull's nose. - Consumers cutting back? Naaw.... they still have all that un-used credit on their cards..... er, ah, that is..... all that remaining "equity " in their homes,,..... um,.... let me see,..... all their big wage increases of the last few years,..... wait a minute,.... I meant... well the pawn shop is still open isn't it? And if they DO cut back, might that bode ill for an economy that is consumer-dependent? - Seen any hurricanes in your neighbourhood of late? - Fanny is hiring HOW MANY consultants to try to sort out the internal accounting? And are there other financial corporations that might be similarly "lacking in transparency"? - What percentage of U.S. citizens are residing in "correctional institutions"? Naaw, it can't be that many can it? And you say it costs how much per inmate? - Energy costs rising? Know ANY product, process, service, that doesn't have an "energy component"? (Thank goodness inflation isn't going up). - Can you list a dozen industries that address non-saturated global end markets? - Are there any companies out there that can really afford to buy back their own stock today? - Does your stock portfolio include only "stocks that will do well in bad times"? Best, Earlie -