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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (2288)	9/18/2005 12:26:48 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 4232

I was at NIH a couple of weeks ago, and they are quite concerned. The pandemic is an easy call, except for fools wearing blinders. Keep posting nonsense. Your record is quite clear.

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (2288)	9/18/2005 3:32:35 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 4232

Richard, I am getting pretty long in the tooth and have seen a lot of medical and scientific incompetence over the decades. I expect to see more. I saw the dopey analysis of sars in the early days, when my prediction, based on early data and calculation, not guesswork, was accurate and the scientists [giggle] were wrong. They were predicting 3% mortality when the data already available showed at least 7% and probably 10%. Duh! Go experts!! I have had a gutsful of ignorant medical and scientific and governmental "experts" who wish primarily to not be "alarmist" and to pretend that everything is hunky dory, to collect their pay and protect the guild. Henry has supplied more and better data on sars and H5N1 than anyone else I am aware of in SI. Jerks like Boxbytheriver contribute nothing. Maybe you have done more. I haven't noticed. It's not a matter of being a broken clock. It's a matter of seeing a situation which is likely to be catastrophic and doing something about it. For a long time, the "official" people were dithering around, trying to maintain attention on diseases which are of course as bad for those afflicted as a disease which kills everyone on Earth, because that was the politically proper thing to do. Now, they have worked out that H12N8 really will wipe out a lot of people, possibly including them, unless something gets in the way and stymies it. H12N8 is the combination of H5N1 and H7N7 which is a candidate for reassortment or recombination or whatever the process is. Maybe you science geeks use different nomenclature, but H12N8 is mine - call it poetic license. Maybe Henry also has a profit motive. So what? Do you think the CDC people aren't getting money for their efforts? Any medical guild people I've come across are raking it in, profiteering from the suffering of people. In New Zealand, we had a couple of opthalmologists running a racket keeping Australian surgeons out to protect their business. comcom.govt.nz They were prosecuted and fined large amounts of money. They were no doubt surprised, because the medical protection racket is perhaps the biggest one on Earth. They even get paid for organ transfers when the donor doesn't - how's THAT for profiteering. They capture that value of the process AND the organ. Cunning bastards. So don't go on about Henry having a profit motive as though there is something wrong with a profit motive in a free market. It's not a matter of fear-mongering. It's a matter of figuring out what the heck to do and when. If it all goes away, like sars, then that's great. Sars went away because people took action. No fear, no action; the Beijing bosses got the wind up, finally, when they personally were threatened, and did something about it. It would have been better if they'd done less of the 'don't worry be happy' and more of the 'alarmist' in the early stages. More people would have been alive today and fewer would have suffered. They took action partly because people in SI were alarmed. For example, Jay Chen was wearing a mask in Hong Kong as a direct result of discussions in SI, when nobody else was. He published photos of himself standing masked in the airport. As it happened, on that trip he was one flight away from the fatal flight. One of the big problems with people is that they pretend everything is hunky dory when it is not. Partly to avoid panic, but mostly because they are dopey and the unusual is not something they understand, or react to effectively. What they like to do is put the boot into those who don't go along with their approach to problems. Don't be one of those sorts. I count myself as a scientist [not that I am one, though I'm not exactly scientifically illiterate and seem to figure things out better than the so-called experts involved, even in their direct field of expertise]. I am glad to count Henry among my colleagues. So you are amazed. We can discuss my scientific credentials if you like. I will be delighted to point out where I was right and the medical guild people were wrong. Not to mention other 'scientists'. This isn't to say that Henry is necessarily right on any particular idea he has, or prediction. We all have big gaps in our knowledge and guess wrong. He seems to me to have a better rating on this than anyone else I've seen. I would not find it convenient if he gave up posting. I can always click on by if I like. Keep up the good work Henry. Thanks. Mqurice

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (2288)	9/18/2005 6:07:42 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4232

Richard, You are the only person I know that claims a scientific background who does realize that the looming pandemic is quite serious. It is more serious now than its been since 1918 and to call warnings at this time fear mongering is probably the dumbest thing I seen posted awhile. A few look at the upcoming pandemic in odd ways, but they have no idea of how to analyze data and a have weird agenda. Of course, I would also put your agenda into the weird category, considering the where and when of your post. Most scientist are sounding an alarm, because the H5N1 situation is clearly heading south. Wild birds will soon help it go global and Indonesia is clearly spinning in he wrong direction at a quickening pace. I was wrong in posting that you had your head it in sand. It is clearly stuck somewhere else.