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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (171068)	9/21/2005 3:47:41 PM
From: Keith Feral	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Only 20% of the people infected from the bird flu die. If 1 billion people came down with the flu, only 200 million would die. That's only 10% of the Chinese and Indian populations. We;ll have to see about those projections. Death estimates are always much higher than reality. How many dead in New Orleans so far - 750? What an incredible difference our evacucuation plans made vs. the tsunami victims that had no prior warning. Of course, we could see the storm coming from hundreds of miles away, whereas the tsunami was immediate and impossible to predict. Nonetheless, warning systems could have saved thousands of people if alarms had been set to warn people to stay away from the coastline. I agree that the higher price of oil is making alternate sources of oil more economical. Look at the cost of oil sands in Canada - the economics are now present to pull massive oil reserves from these sources at $50 a barrel. At $25 a barrel, there was no profit incentive to make the project generate any profit. I guess the same is true with lng projects in Qatar. There are unlimited reserves of natural gas, but I'm not sure how it will impact the gasoline market. I don't see any initiatives that will make liquid hydrogen on such a massive scale to make fuel cell engines a reality for at least a decade. Hybrid engines need to take place at the consumer level where people pay to have the technology put directly into their cars. The only thing they will likely get is a tax incentive to reduce the costs. Looking at my portfolio selection, I continue to flush away meaningless positions in telecommunications and banking to add to every one of my energy positions. By the end of the year, XOM will be my largest concentrated position. Just like the old days with the mighty Q. The only difference is that I am spending more money every week on gasoline than I will spend on a QCOM chip for an entire year. In fact, I am getting at least 2 or 3 years in between product cycles for CDMA handsets right now. The next upgrade cycle will inevitably bring along alot of gsm users to the party. They are probably spending a bloody fortune on their gas tanks too. I vote to invest where most of my money is going to pay for goods and services. XOM, CVX, BP and the integrated oils have lagged the move in oil. People will move beyond their panic at the pump and start shifting more of their assets into oil stocks. We aren't even close to a top, since all the estimates are using benchmark prices for oil from last year.