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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (171072)	9/21/2005 4:55:32 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

<Only 20% of the people infected from the bird flu die.> Sars was about 12% mortality and was considered a horror show. H5N1 was killing 70% for a while, but slowed to 50% last I checked. Even if there is further slowing, which is NOT guaranteed, "only 20% dead" is still a lot of people, especially if one of them is me or mine. <only 200 million would die. That's only 10% of the Chinese and Indian populations > If only 10% of Americans died, I think there would be quite a lot of commotion. Look how upset they get over 2000 soldiers in Iraq and not even 1000 in New Orleans. 10% of the USA would be 30 million. That would make a good stack of bodies. Especially given the average size is a lot bigger than the average Chinese. "only" 1% is enough to get people going. AIDS was ever only a 1% disease in the OECD. Look at the drama that created. A 50% or only 20% or derisory 10% death rate would not be good. On oil, I'd be surprised if it's not ready for a big move down. Maybe in another year or so. It took from 1979 to 1985 for the skids to really go under oil. That's 6 years. Maybe it will take until 2008 for oil to crash. But oil skidded from the 1979/80 peak before the final sag down to sub $10 oil. The peak was reached within a year of the rises. I'd sell oil now. Buy US$ - interest rates are going up and the US$ is down. Look at gold for example $475. NZ$. Housing. Oz$. Sure there are horizon to horizon US$ debts and deficits and spendthrift government ways, but those must be nearly factored in. No double your money back guarantee on that though. Mqurice