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To: tejek who wrote (252533)	9/23/2005 4:20:26 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 1572106

re: The 1 PM CDT says 125 MPH. Where are you getting 135 MPH? Somebody on the hurricane site that knows their way around the NOAA site posted it. If you look at the satellite, you can see the eye, that had just about disappeared, has reformed--- ssd.noaa.gov and the red high cloud tops are back. It shouldn't last... it's getting to shallow water and the shear is going to increase. At least I hope not. John

To: tejek who wrote (252533)	9/23/2005 4:49:26 PM
From: Road Walker	Respond to of 1572106

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 25 Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 23, 2005 the weakening trend appears to have leveled off. It appears that the eyewall replacement cycles have been the dominant factor...as usual...in controlling the intensity fluctuations of Rita. Flight level wind data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum winds are about 110 knots. Objective T-numbers have increased a little suggesting stronger winds but I rather wait for these numbers to persist. Only a slight weakening is forecast before landfall due to shear and cooler ocean. This is not a very significant change and in fact...Rita is still forecast to make landfall as a category three hurricane. The hurricane has been moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at about 10 knots during the past few hours. No significant change in the steering pattern is expected before landfall. On this track...the core of Rita should reach the Upper Texas/southwest Louisiana coast Saturday morning. Thereafter...the steering currents are foreast to collapse and a weakened Rita could meander for a few days over northeast Texas/southwest Arkansas producing torrential rains. Forecaster Avila forecast positions and Max winds initial 23/2100z 28.2n 92.6w 110 kt 12hr VT 24/0600z 29.2n 93.7w 105 kt 24hr VT 24/1800z 30.8n 94.5w 65 kt...inland 36hr VT 25/0600z 32.5n 94.5w 30 kt...inland 48hr VT 25/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland 72hr VT 26/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland 96hr VT 27/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland 120hr VT 28/1800z 33.5n 94.5w 25 kt...inland $$

To: tejek who wrote (252533)	9/23/2005 7:57:33 PM
From: combjelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1572106

Scratched teflon...................... Looks like when the armor starts to break down, it goes quick. A lot of the evacuees from Houston are incensed at how badly it has gone. The center of the blame is Bush and FEMA, although it isn't really their fault. I suppose it could be argued that FEMA should have planned for something like this, or mentioned to the state officials that they should have gamed this sort of event, but we know that they haven't seriously done anything like that since Witt got the boot. The problems with this evacuation has more to do with it being done as a purely ad-hoc, seat of the pants sort of deal by the state. On the plus side, a lot of workable solutions are floating around and if the state officials are willing to learn from it, future events should go smoother. Contraflowing the Interstates should have been thought of and planned for a long time ago. Heck, we discussed that very issue during Alicia more than 20 years ago. Having tank trucks with gasoline to help those stalled from blocking traffic was a good idea, unfortunately implemented late in the game. Doing a staged mandatory evacuation, starting in Galveston and rolling up I45 needs to be done. A similar pattern for the other main areas like the Beaumont/Port Arthur/Orange area along with Corpus Christi and Brownsville.