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Technology Stocks : Alphabet Inc. (Google) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Green who wrote (3271)	10/4/2005 5:29:56 PM
From: Trader J	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15858

Certainly that is all part of the equation Don, but I think you are focusing too much on just the tangible without regard to the intangible, or indirectly tangible, variables with GOOG. I will admit that they have many irons in the fire right now and none of them are producing any material amount of revenue but they can most certainly get there from here ..... as long as they are a development company, which they are. Now, obviously, nothing I say is going to change your mind, and I doubt anything you could say would change mine ..... but I listen and factor in every objective thought I hear to make sure I haven'tt missed anything in my analysis. I am the biggest believer in brand and brand leverage into business model. And I haven't seen an argument yet that even comes close to dispelling the fact that what GOOG has done in their short lifetime exceeds that of the best growth companies in history, MSFT included. ORCL, DELL, INTC have different models altogether but did largely succeed on business model and market timing into brand leverage. ORCL could be considered the closest with the very important exception that their market is completely different, and muted, to what GOOG's is. The reason that MSFT is so worried about GOOG is because they recognize this model all too well and they recognize the perfect storm scenario that they themselves utilized ... only it has been perfected thus far with GOOG. GOOG has enough irons in the fire as well as the resources to keep them there so that they ultimately pay off. I think it is important to note that it will only take one of these to substantially pay off for GOOG to realize their future. And as I said before, because of their brand awareness and leverage, they will have to work 1/2 as hard to be twice as successful as other entrants. Again, success is not guaranteed, but it is most definitely the path of least resistance. Nothing wrong with waiting to see and it might even pay off in the short run ... but you also risk getting left behind because human nature usually dictates that if you aren't willing to enter here, you won't enter at a higher point. I had quite a few shares on the day AOL on the day it went public at $11 or so and many refused to buy it at $17+ because they felt it was overpriced and couldn't leverage their model. I have been on the lookout and done a lot of analysis for 15 years now looking for similar models, brands, etc. and all the stars are aligned here. Just wish it was a tighter float at this point. But that will be largely addressed after the S&P which will constrict it. cheers. J