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To: Earlie who wrote (38507)10/5/2005 2:10:16 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu  Read Replies (5) | Respond to of 116555
 
Earlie, one remarks to your post - fundamentals rarely count in today’s financial markets and in most cases do not work as anticipated – reason most if not all financial instruments are manipulated, if by WS or money managers or the issuer / company itself

Will bring up two stocks who were mentioned many times on treads I visit - FNM short around $70 for the last 2 or 3 years - most puts went to money heaven

PD (on BBB) around $60 to 65 as a buy in 2002/3 many calls went to money heaven.

Needless to mention that the concepts about those stock were right but EARLY <GG>

From my own perspective - stocks I found overvalued and I recommended to sell or short I got hammered and humiliated to many times - some I remember but there were many more --- CSCO at $70, SUNW at 65 (120 - 130 pre split) LU at 65 or even on currency moves I was ridiculed to death every time I made some comments that did not pan as forecasted

So if you have a great idea, then better IMHO, keep it to yourself :( - so I turned more to a reader than a contributor which brings to my mind a very old post once I posted related to the Mississippi River - which also proved true over time to the stock market and unfortunate to real life



To: Earlie who wrote (38507)10/5/2005 2:26:22 PM
From: Chispas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Earlie, almost every one of us has at some time felt guilty....

Won't forget my last episode...

Vronsky chastised me for promoting Geomaque which had just
posted it's first profit ever...

Vronsky was upset because I'd mentioned a company that did
not advertise on his site...

That didn't bother me, just quit promoting Gold Eagle !

What did bother me, Geomaque had falsified their financials,
they hadn't made a profit, in reality they had sold all their
minining equipment, they were 'done for'...

Dunce was me !!



To: Earlie who wrote (38507)10/5/2005 2:52:43 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 116555
 
Earlie, I have sort of a different attitude about posts on financial sites. IMHO, each post stands alone, whether readers want it to or not. We are letter writers and pen pals, not newspaper columnists or newsletter writers. I don't think that any of us purport to be gurus who should be followed blindly. Now, you were a guru at one time when you wrote the Tech Letter, but that was a regular publication and you certainly followed up on your ideas. I also hold Mish and Russ to a higher standard for the things they post on their blogs or on Whiskey and Gunpowder or in The Daily Reckoning or Financial Sense than for their replies here. Posting on SI is a different game. Since it doesn't pay and most of us do other things full time to bring home the soybean bacon substitute, SI posting has to take a number in the deli as a priority.

So, the question is, if you post an idea, are you tied to that idea and required to follow-up? If so, for how long? What is the obligation of the reader who takes the idea and runs with it? Now, this has never been a problem for me, as I steal everyone else's ideas and claim them as my originals. But others who need to follow somebody else's lead may expect more. IMHO, this is the wrong forum to expect that. Even trying to operate that way could lead one of us to an Anthony at Pacific moment.

That being said, I've not been posting ideas since I went to work for The Kremlin, so I'm an observer. Box has some solid ideas, but I think this forum is more of a flea market of ideas than a Pottery Barn. And if somebody breaks it, they own it, not you.



To: Earlie who wrote (38507)10/5/2005 3:06:47 PM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
fair enough and well said.

i would add one thing on the contribution front. in all my years on this outfit, you are the only serious student of the parking lot and loading docks to show up. Those insights showed a lot of folks, in my view, how a little common sense can go a long way against the street's well financed spread sheet forecasting and all and sundry other fluff.... a cut to the chase approach anyone can undertake if they are willing to turn over a few or enough stones lying there for the turning. In that, post mortems and calls never come into play, the evidence itself shows the way. It depersonalizes the analysis, makes it more neutral, less subjective, more acceptable to a thoughtful investor.

That's where doing something well and sharing it automatically adds value and by its nature remains above reproach of any kind.

and something you did share, to your credit. For those who had never seen it, you illustrated it very succintly and with useful clarity, in addition helping to keep the conversation grounded, the hardest task of all in this kind of group think.

tanks. i mean thanks.

ok.. enough of this slobber fest. back to the bear cave.

J



To: Earlie who wrote (38507)10/7/2005 12:16:50 PM
From: Madharry  Respond to of 116555
 
I have always enjoyed reading your posts. they seem thoughtful and well reasoned. My take is if someone mentions a specific stock , and that person posts regularly on a thread, than I think its only fair that they post shortly after they have bailed out of it, for whatever reason, unless of course everyone has shot down that stock beforehand. *S* For example two stocks i own are cryp and edv.to. i post mostly on the value thread. there are people who have bought into cryp. I know of no one who owns edv.to from that thread. So when and if i bail out of cryp i will post, but probably not on edv.to.



To: Earlie who wrote (38507)10/7/2005 11:00:17 PM
From: starhawke  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Earlie,

Have always appreciated your posts, considerably more entertaining and informative than the average, not to mention - always polite. Phrasing such as "do your own due diligence" or the like frequently came into play, even or especially when you chose to divulge interesting situations strictly via private message. (Disclosure: After copious research, two of those situations worked out very well for me, Greystar and Innovative - now Clearford.)

Adults shouldn't be babied, anyone who commits their cash without doing their own research due to laziness/recklessness/cluelessness must be "desirous of losing money".

I thank you for taking the time to post and share, and hope that the advanced age that you frequently claim is creeping up on you keeps you from changing (old dogs/new tricks). <g>

Cheers.