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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (1115)	10/10/2005 8:43:10 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217549

< I figure Maestro Greensputin and Helicopter BurnAndKaput will be sacrificed at some point in time. They represent the worst of the scoundrels pushing what in effect is a drug or what is know as easy credit> Being a lifelong saver, inveterate borrowers are my sort of people. They keep my interest rates up to Happy Meal levels. They go to work each day to keep the payments up. I don't think they should be denigrated as druggies. Our great and estimable hero, Uncle Al KBE, has done a masterful job of keeping the monetary measuring stick in fine fettle. His little baton, exactly one dollar long, has kept the financial orchestra in tune and in tempo, with barely a hint of cacophony or collapse, despite all sorts of wayward participants trying to bust up the harmonious enjoyment by all. He will retire soon, to great applause, after many years of success. He will leave before the resolution of the biotelecosmictechdot.com bust is complete and before housing and interest rates have returned to normal business. Which is a shame. <I hope the electorates choose wisely.> I'm sure they will not. It would be very unusual, akin to all the gas molecules in a sealed jar ending up at one end of the jar for an instant. <I can easily be wrong on my figuring of the definitive Reckoning Day, but I keep reminding myself, we are not heading to a Reckoning Day, but are already in a Reckoning Process. > You have already missed at least one "Head for the hills, The Rapture is upon us" claim [a year ago in October which passed unremarked]. You are safer with a process, which is obviously what we have been in for 5 years. Many reckonings, both daily and annually have taken place. Worldcom, Enron, Globalstar, Global Crossing etc etc etc are very old news. Y2K came and went into misty memory. 911 is now 4 years old and being forgotten. Osama is somewhere in the hills, being shaken up by Allah. A tsunami has been and gone. Bali bombers are worth just few headlines now. Afghanistan has been deTalebanized for years. Saddam is long out of business, along with the deck of cards and the WAT is wearing on and American attention spans have long since been reached. It has become a very long process. Meanwhile, HOV, TOL and co are being repriced, perhaps as a prelude to galaxy-wide repricing using the new, financial relativity theory shrunken, US$ measuring stick. Which ironically should see the reported measurements being bigger, not smaller. Uncle Al is not yet down and out. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (1115)	10/11/2005 11:20:02 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 217549

I am not more concerned than usual about the economy. Who is going to be surprised if one morning US housing prices are down 10% ? Even Paris Hilton knows about the housing bubble. Is Euro weakness going to sneak up on currency traders and CEOs? For the banks who have been expecting GM to go bankrupt for about 4 years now be able to handle the rapid pace of events ? Will the decline of the US Dollar catch the FED and Treasury napping ? China's cental bank ? Botswanna's cental bank, which is guarded by live lions ? (The actual bank is upwind) *** Most of the near term stress are already baked into prices, hedged out, reserved, re-insured, hypothecated, sold off in traches to the unsuspecting yet solvent, and otherwise fixed. Continuing, repeated, stress might break things after 3 or 4 or 5 waves of expected problems, but the first 1 or 2, no way. Loook at how long it is taking GM to go BK, and they are not there yet... ** There is, of course the usuall danger of surprises (two big hurricanes hit critical infrastructure, SARS, tsunami, Kobe earthquake stops Japan exports, etc.) ** The other point is that most things are generally not as dire as statistics and scare articles indicate. Roughly 1/3 of US homes have NO Mortgage, another 1/3 have under $50,000 (usually a fixed rate). The US trade defict numbers don't correctly count services, and are amplified by tax avoidance games. Not all loans made by Chinese banks are bad. Besides, China is geting foreign banks to add capital ;-) ** There will be big changes, but mostly in slow motion, like the price of gold doubling in 5 years. It will look like a sharp move on a 100 year chart, but for those of us are living through it, it seems to take a long time.