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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chispas who wrote (39119)	10/13/2005 10:49:14 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116555

Harry Dent is at it again. A key element of both the Dent and Hays outlook is the observation that most extreme bull phases of the last century -- 1915 to 1919, 1925 to 1929, 1935 to 1937, 1985 to 1987 and 1995 to 1999 -- were preceded by major corrections (or crashes), followed by a strong initial recovery and then a one-to-two-year trading range. Of course, the implication is that the crash in this case was the 2000-02 bear market and that the recovery rally happened in 2003 and the trading range was seen from 2004 to 2005. Dent suggests that the markets "are simply waiting for signs that the Fed can't tighten much further" and for oil to correct below $58-to-$62 support levels "to suggest a top in that bubble." thestreet.com

To: Chispas who wrote (39119)	10/13/2005 11:31:19 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

China Rejects Currency Control Pressure BEIJING (AP) -- China's finance minister on Thursday rejected U.S. pressure for a quick end to currency controls, saying ahead of a visit by his American counterpart that Beijing will move at its own pace. Treasury Secretary John Snow, due to meet with Chinese officials in Beijing next week, is expected to push for a faster easing of controls that Washington says keep the value of China's currency, the yuan, too low and give Chinese exporters an unfair price advantage. ''China needs to approach the currency exchange rate from the perspective of China's economic interests first and foremost,'' Finance Minister Jin Renqing said. ''We will not listen to someone else's conductor when doing what we need to do.'' China's leaders say they plan to end currency controls but haven't given a timeline. Doing so immediately would hurt its fragile banks and financial industries, they say. Jin said Beijing would stick to its plans but didn't respond to a question about when controls on the yuan might end. In July, China won a brief respite in American pressure when it ended a link that had tied the yuan's value to the U.S. dollar for more than a decade. The central bank switched to a system that allowed the yuan to trade in a restricted float against a basket of world currencies, and raised the yuan's value by 2.1 percent against the dollar. Since then, the yuan has risen only 0.3 percent -- and Washington, unhappy that the exchange rate has changed so little, has resumed lobbying Beijing. Snow is leading a delegation to Beijing that includes Alan Greenspan, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve. They are to take part in a meeting on Oct. 16-17 of the U.S.-China Joint Economic Commission, a forum for discussing trade disputes. Both sides say currency will be on the agenda, but China already has warned Snow against pushing too hard. The government of President Bush is under pressure to cut an American trade deficit with China that last year hit an all-time high of $162 billion and is on track to be 30 percent higher this year. ''We want to consider our partners and the needs of the world economy,'' Jin said. However, he said, ''We do not decide our currency rate based on the trade deficit of any single country.'' nytimes.com

To: Chispas who wrote (39119)	10/13/2005 11:36:29 AM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

U.S. - China Textile Talks Fail BEIJING (Reuters) - China and the United States failed on Thursday to find a formula to regulate China's booming textile shipments, immediately prompting American manufacturers to seek curbs on imports of towels made in China. With time running out for an agreement before the end of the year, the stalemate means U.S. retailers will face uncertainty about just how much they will be able to import from China until the end of 2008, when curbs on its textile exports will lapse. ``We have not come to an agreement that meets the needs of our domestic manufacturers and retailers,'' David Spooner, the special textile negotiator in the U.S. Trade Representative's Office, said in a statement after two days of talks. It was the fourth round of face-to-face meetings since a surge in Chinese exports unleashed by the end of global textile quotas on January 1 spread alarm in the United States. A spokesman for China's Foreign Ministry, Kong Quan, said some friction was inevitable given fast-growing trade between the two countries. ``What is important is that China and the U.S. can take a calm, objective and forward-looking attitude to deal with and resolve their problems,'' he told a regular news briefing. China, with modern factories and cheap labor, has seen sales of clothes to the United States jump 75 percent in the first seven months to nearly $10.5 billion. Under China's accession to the World Trade Organization in 2001, Washington can impose ``safeguards'' until the end of 2008 if China's textiles are shown to be disrupting the U.S. market. These cap growth in exports at 7.5 percent a year. NO PROGRESS The United States has already imposed safeguard curbs on imports of Chinese shirts, trousers, bras, underwear, yarn and other textile and clothing products. At the same time, in order to provide certainty for importers and domestic manufacturers, industry groups have been pushing for a comprehensive deal similar to one negotiated by the European Union. That agreement, reached in June and revised in September, limits annual growth in 10 categories of Chinese textile exports to the 25-nation EU to between 8 and 12.5 percent a year in the period 2005-2007. ``At this round, China returned to its position of delay and no compromise by insisting on terms for an agreement that were impossible for the U.S. government to accept and that would have been extremely damaging to the U.S. industry and its workers,'' Cass Johnson, president of the National Council of Textile Organizations, said in a statement. As a result, Johnson said the textile industry had filed a petition with the U.S. government requesting safeguard curbs on imports of towels from China, which he said rose 224 percent in the first eight months of the year. The two sides narrowed their differences in Washington last month and U.S. industry officials had been confident before this week's talks that a deal could finally be struck. U.S. Trade Representative Rob Portman had been ready to come to Beijing to close a deal, industry executives and diplomats said. In the event, U.S. lobbyists said, Beijing dug in its heels and demanded far higher growth ceilings than the United States could accept. ``Our understanding is that there was absolutely no progress,'' Auggie Tantillo, executive director of the American Manufacturing Trade Action Committee, told Reuters. ``A mutual agreement does not appear to be on the cards in the near future.'' He said the textile industry would now file petitions for fresh protection and seek to ensure that existing safeguards were rolled over seamlessly when they lapsed at the end of the year. ``It is the importing community which must be completely out of sorts, not knowing what the arrangements will be for 2006 and what its sourcing options will be,'' Tantillo said. Spooner, who was flying back to Washington on Thursday, said the United States would continue to impose safeguards ``as appropriate.'' nytimes.com