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Biotech / Medical : SARS and Avian Flu -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NOW who wrote (2800)	10/17/2005 6:23:47 PM
From: FiloF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

Is your main point that the 50% or 70% or whatever % rate is not especially meaningful because the denominator in such a calculation is based on only the reported cases, and the actual number of cases is likely higher (resulting in a lower rate)?

To: NOW who wrote (2800)	10/17/2005 6:34:41 PM
From: maceng2	Respond to of 4232

When was the last time you killed and gutted a chicken, or prepared duck from a carcass? Do pheasants count? As chickens etc when humans might possibly develop avian flu type virus resistance?? Otherwise, I doubt if pheasants actually have much of a mathematical skill -g- The question is, are the Chinese and Asians going to come out of any Avian flu pandemic better then the ROW? On one hand, it will probably start in Asia 'cuase they often have lots of poultry at close hand. This will give time for Western nations to prepare for the onslaught, and develop counter measures. On the other hand, the Chinese and Asians, from living in close proximity to poultry may have already developed natural resistance to any new strains of Avian flu. The positive/negative emphasis changes depending where you live of course, and what the answer is.

To: NOW who wrote (2800)	10/17/2005 6:36:38 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

I don't think John Q. Public missed your point. He was pointing out that the calculated mortality rate is affected by many factors in addition the one you mentioned. a.) You and I agree that the number of people who contract an infectious disease (morbidity rate) is almost certainly higher than is reported, while the number of deaths related to the disease is almost certainly closer to the reported number - over-estimating the mortality rate. b.) Also during a pandemic, the number of reported deaths usually falls behind the number of reported or estimated infections - under-estimating the mortality rate. c.) I'm confident that a percentage of the population in Asia has been previously exposed to a less lethal (to humans) variant of H5N1 in their frequent contact with birds, providing them with partial or total immunity, as John Q Public points out - under-estimating the mortality rate. • • • Some factors under-estimate the mortality rate, while other factors cause an over-estimation. But the actual mortality rate also fluctuates over time. Plague pathogens become more and less lethal as new variants arise. This description of the 1918 Flu pandemic in New Zealand offers a hint of this. Between one third and a half of the population of New Zealand was infected with the flu. In some places the death rate was as high as 80% of the town's population, while in others there were very few deaths. The mortality rate in New Zealand was unusually low compared to other nations - less than 1%. A total of 8,000+ deaths out of a 1914 population of 1911.1 million. But the percentage of the popuation in contact with animals and birds was, like Asia today, quite high. library.christchurch.org.nz In the United States, the rate of mortality/morbidity for the 1918 flu fluctuated dramatically over time. .

To: NOW who wrote (2800)	10/17/2005 8:12:49 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4232

So then you're suggesting that it is already virulent, has already infected lots of people, and they haven't gotten sick? If you're not then you pretty much are suggesting that since the breakout started a lot of poultry workers have contracted it and not gotten sick enough to get into the reporting system. Given that over half the people that get this flu DIE I just can't believe that lots of people have gotten it and not gotten sick. Haven't been able to find any articles that even remotely suggest this might be happening. They are testing every poultry worker who gets suspiciously sick for H5N1. Ridiculously low fatality numbers have started floating around in the last few days. It is likely the governments would love to document what you suggest is happening to calm their populaces.