thank you Cnyndwllr
I know what you're saying, but it's this way about most things- it's just that the rational folks only notice it when the irrationality is about something we care about- like politics. Most people aren't rationally weighing evidence about anything- not their finances, not what they eat, not how they exercise, not how they prepare their kids for the future in a more and more competitive world market- they take a position because of their family politics, or their church, or because they "like" a given political figure or don't like one, or because everyone does something the way they do, or because it's easy- most often because it's easy. The conservatives on SI, even though they can be a pretty hostile bunch, and pretty free with the "You're against the war so you support Saddam" garbage- at least seem to be better informed than most people I meet. That's a positive. Most of them are at least trying to find facts to fit their positions- other people out there aren't even trying. Unfortunately I'd argue that most of the people on SI can't rank risks to save their lives (literally). Inactivity, obesity, eating habits, smoking, anger management- some of our major killers, and lots of folks on SI are ignoring them- to their peril. They can pay attention to Iraq, but not to their own health- what does that tell you about how likely you are to get through whether you are polite or not? There's really no point to this at all, except I get to bond (intellectually) with people like you, who I agree with (and the other team gets to do that too). I'm not under the illusion anyone from the "other side" is going to change their minds. Hey, if they do- that's AMAZING- but I'm not counting on it- and being impolite isn't going to make anyone more likely to change.
I talk all the time with our neighbor's brother in law- who happens to be a republican, who relocated to the Bay Area from Orange County. He's the only republican in the family, so he's willing to talk with me, and he's polite. Unfortunately he still believes Saddam was going to attack the US, even though we have no proof of that, and he is 100% certain the risk was worth it. He doesn't follow the news, and he doesn't know any of the details of our history with Iraq, or who the terrorists are in the ME, and where they come from, nothing. So I asked him, "What if it comes to civil war?" And he thinks it was worth it. And I asked him "What if we turn out to have an Iraqi government much more hostile to American interests?" And he thinks it was worth it. I guess what I'm getting at, is that most people don't do risk assessment in their lives, and they don't do them about politics either. He doesn't care what the risks are, and he can't tell me why taking a big change was worth it, even when we might end up with something much worse. People are afraid of terrorists, when they really ought to be afraid of other motorists, or eating badly, or not exercising. When people are used to ignoring risks, and taking fears on faith, they are going to do this in all areas of their lives. They aren't going to think "Now what are the odds that Iraq is really going to attack America?" or "Now what are the odds of a bad outcome in the Me from this?" and "Let's see how many of the terrorists who've attacked US targets have been Iraqi- and let's look at the biggest represented fractions first". That would require research, or at the very least close attention to the news, and most people just aren't going to do that. You've seen the polls that assess the American people's general knowledge of current events and geography- and they're dismal.
The rational educated portion of the population will always be a small minority (especially if they aren't religious), and we'll be a lonely misunderstood minority. I'm used to that- and I'm just really gratified the rest of the country has actually come around on the war, and on Bush. Quite frankly I'm amazed by it. So you and I should just be happy- because honestly, we do the little we can, and that's all we can do. I hope this made sense, because I'm making a batch of fresh Cream of Chaterelles soup, with port wine, and I have to keep running back to the kitchen to whisk it. |
