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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (40438)	11/1/2005 5:58:41 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Enough Elroy - He is entitled to his opinion. Charging him with stockpiling is simply unwarranted. Mish

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (40438)	11/1/2005 6:00:21 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 116555

Heinz on gold and credit spreads. Thanks to ILD Date: Tue Nov 01 2005 14:14 trotsky (@gold) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved should credit spreads really break to new annual highs, it'll be tough sledding for the gold bears. gold and government bonds will be sought after if/when that happens. as an aside, money flows in pm stocks have looked bullish about 90% of the time during the recent correction. this is very similar to the oil sector in late '03 - Wall Street analysts HATE the sector, but money flows are strong. Date: Tue Nov 01 2005 14:00 trotsky (@credit spreads) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved credit spreads have recently resumed their widening trend, and look now poised to break into new high ground for the year. if they do, we'll soon have crisis conditions. keep in mind that many hedge funds are heavily engaged in relatively illiquid and exotic spread product in their continual hunt for yield. many have 'texas hedges' put on that my or may not work. anyway, there's too much debt in the system, much of it of questionable quality, and highly leveraged speculators are unlikely to be able to bear a significant amount of pain after the markets have been so calm for so long. everybody is betting on volatility staying low and there's widespread complacency regarding the downside risks. well, the risks have just increased by another notch, and will increase some more with the rate hike.

To: Elroy Jetson who wrote (40438)	11/1/2005 10:06:04 PM
From: Think4Yourself	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116555

I wouldn't worry about anyone profiting from private Tamiflu sales if a pandemic breaks out. First off, it's illegal almost everywhere. Secondly, we would probably be under some form of martial law. Anyone with Tamiflu stocks, anywhere in the world, could expect the police or military to break down their front door and take it, not to mention getting put in a prison, in close forced proximity to lots of other people. Anyone who thinks they can't be tracked down because they are using the internet is a fool. It's legally hard but technologically easy. Lastly, if the neighbors knew, they would probably shoot him to get it when they got sick. With all the people dying, who's going to care if one more goes? Desperate times make for desperate actions from desperate people. People somehow think it will be business as usual in a pandemic. I seriously doubt it. I believe there will be a prominent military presence in the society of every affected country. Travel will be restricted, and hospitals will operate much differently than they do now. As for worldwide trade, fugget about it!! We are already seeing signs of it being adversely affected.