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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 10:50:04 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
EU´s Mandelson rules out further EU concessions on farm tariffs at the moment
Thursday, November 10, 2005 3:16:14 PM
afxpress.com

EU's Mandelson rules out further EU concessions on farm tariffs at the moment BRUSSELS (AFX) - EU trade commissioner Peter Mandelson has ruled out further EU concessions on farm tariffs at the moment. "Simply demanding more in agriculture ... does not add up to a serious negotiation," he said

He also said WTO partners should reduce their expectations for ministerial talks in Hong Kong next month but keep up their ambition intact for the overall round of trade negotiations. "Reducing expectations for Hong Kong, if carefully handled, will allow us to avoid an acrimonious breakdown of the sort we witnessed in Seattle and Cancun," Mandelson told the European Parliament. "If we scale back in Hong Kong, we should not scale back for the round as a whole. It is too important," Mandelson added. Earlier today, World Trade Organization chief Pascal Lamy urged member states to go beyond stocktaking when they gather in Hong Kong next month, even though they have agreed to curtail the scope of their conference there because of deadlock

Top WTO negotiators meeting earlier this week failed to bridge key differences and acknowledged they would have to "recalibrate" the goals of the meeting
===================================================
LOL Let's lower the definition of success so we don't fail.
This stuff is pretty funny.
Meanwhile France is ready to torpedo the talks if necessary.

Mish



To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 10:53:31 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
U.S. weekly jobless claims rise 2,000 to 326,000 -
Thursday, November 10, 2005 2:04:36 PM
afxpress.com

WASHINGTON (AFX) -- First-time filings for state unemployment benefits rose by 2,000 in the week ended Nov. 5 to a seasonally adjusted 326,000 claims, the Labor Department said Thursday

The new claims included an estimated 15,000 related to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita as well as 6,000 related to Hurricane Wilma, a department spokesman said. A total of 535,000 claims related to Katrina and Rita have been filed, while 7,400 have been filed due to Hurricane Rita. The hurricane-related figures aren't seasonally adjusted

The four-week average of new claims fell to 334,250 from 350,500. It's the lowest since just after Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast on Aug. 29. The estimates of the storms' impact on initial claims show that labor markets in the rest of the country have been little affected, with underlying initial claims staying in the 300,000 to 320,000 range that prevailed before the hurricanes

However, a Labor Department official has said that U.S. job growth excluding the storms was "below trend" during October. Nonfarm payrolls for the nation as a whole rose by 56,000 last month

Meanwhile in the weekly data, the number of people continuing to receive unemployment checks rose by 23,000 to 2.82 million in the week ended Oct. 29. The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 10,000, to 2.84 million, to mark the lowest in a month

Continuing claims are up by about 250,000 since Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast

The insured unemployment rate, representing the proportion of eligible workers who are receiving benefits, stayed at 2.2%

In other reports released Thursday, the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade gap widened to a record $66.1 billion in September as exports plunged. In addition, the Labor Department said import prices fell 0.3% in October as imported oil prices dropped 4.4%. Natural-gas prices surged 19.6%, as the report showed scant but growing pressure on U.S. inflation outside the energy sector



To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 10:58:36 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Prospect of steady housing mkt, economy weighed against UK rate cut - RICS
Thursday, November 10, 2005 1:38:39 PM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - The prospect of a steady housing market and economic growth in the UK weighed against the need for an interest rate reduction right now, the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said. Housing market transactions have displayed a clear rise on the back of the Bank of England's first rate cut in 2-years this August while receding fears of a crash has supported a gradual rise in would-be buyers, said RICS economist David Stubbs

"Indicators of manufacturing activity and business investment has slowly risen in the past few quarters, as exports have jumped sharply due to robust growth in the global economy. Therefore, the prospects are for steady growth in the economy and housing demand into early next year, mitigating the need for another interest rate cut for now," he added. The comments came after the BoE kept the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 4.50 pct for the third month running in a much expected decision today



To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 11:09:16 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
BoE should have been bolder and cut rates - BCC
Thursday, November 10, 2005 12:22:13 PM
afxpress.com

LONDON (AFX) - The Bank of England should have been more bold and cut interest rates in response to faltering economic growth, one of the UK's leading business lobby groups said today

Though the financial markets expected the Monetary Policy Committee to leave its key repo rate unchanged at 4.50 pct, the British Chambers of Commerce said it was disappointed the rate-setting body did not take bolder action to counter the "worsening" economic situation and the "sharp" slowdown in the pace of economic activity

David Frost, the BCC's director general, noted that UK GDP grew below trend in the third quarter for the fifth consecutive quarter, while manufacturing output remained in recession and the claimant count measure of unemployment has risen for eight months straight

"While we appreciate that the MPC faces serious uncertainties, waiting too long before taking corrective action also entails major risks," he said. "The economic situation has worsened considerably, and business confidence is weak and it is therefore critically important that the MPC should maintain a flexible approach, and should stand ready to counter the sharp slowdown in the pace of economic activity," he added



To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 11:15:51 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Arab Royals Buy 2 Pieces of the Skyline

By CHARLES V. BAGLI
Published: November 10, 2005

They are two trophy buildings in Manhattan, familiar if not instantly nameable by anyone who knows the city: 230 Park Avenue, the gold-crowned, 34-story tower that sits astride the avenue between 45th and 46th Streets, and the Essex House, one of the grand Art Deco hotels on Central Park South.

And now they have a new landlord: the royal family of Dubai, the oil-rich Arab emirate on the Persian Gulf.

In lightning moves reminiscent of the Japanese real-estate shopping spree in the late 1980's, two companies controlled by the royal family plunked down more than $1.1 billion for the buildings. The family's representative, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem, flew into town yesterday to make the announcement this morning over breakfast at Michael's, the cafeteria for New York's media elite on West 55th Street, and raise Dubai's profile.

Two buildings, even famous ones, may not make a new real estate dynasty, but the purchases have the New York development community humming because they constitute Dubai's first - and probably not the last - foray into the hot market here.

The hugely wealthy emirate, one of seven city-states that make up the United Arab Emirates, has turned itself into one of the fastest-growing tourist destinations in the world and is now an avid real estate investor in the United States and England, because its oil reserves are slowly running dry. The crown prince, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, is intent on diversifying.

One of the royal family's companies, Istithmar, closed this week on the $705 million purchase of 230 Park, known variously as the Helmsley Building and the New York Central Building. A separate Dubai company closed in September on the $440 million acquisition of the Essex House, home to Alain Ducasse, the restaurant which recently won a coveted three-star rating in the Michelin guide to New York City.

The big question now is not whether the emirate can afford the buildings, but whether it will escape the fate that befell Japan 15 years ago when it made too heavy a bet on real estate at the top of the market and lost.

"New York is a world unto its own as far as real estate is concerned," said David S. Schaiman, a managing director of Sonnenblick-Goldman, the real estate investment bank that oversaw the sale of the Essex House. "Everybody wants to buy in New York."

In an interview yesterday afternoon, Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem said he believed that there was still opportunity for growth in New York: "This shows our confidence in the real estate market in New York. We believe the market is very good here. If we see another opportunity, we'll return."

Slightly smaller than Delaware, Dubai has become an international banking center as well as a major tourist spot. Oil accounts for only 8 percent of the city-state's national income, while tourism accounts for 17 percent, government officials said.

Golf and tennis tournaments feature Tiger Woods and Venus Williams. Rod Stewart reportedly bought an island there, and the soccer star David Beckham and his wife, the former Spice Girl Victoria Beckham, are frequent visitors. Indeed, some 5.45 million travelers visited Dubai in 2004, nearly 20 times the number of a decade earlier.

Over the past three years, Dubai has also quietly invested more than $1 billion in real estate in the United States, putting money into nursing homes, office buildings, hotels and thousands of apartments in Dallas, Phoenix, Nashville and Atlanta.

Last year, the crown prince made a splash in London when his companies bought Madame Tussaud's wax museums and the office building at 1 Trafalgar Square.

Now it is plunging into one of the most expensive and most lucrative markets in the world, New York. Essex House last sold for $250 million in 1999. A year earlier, 230 Park was sold for $225 million. With both properties, real estate brokers say, Dubai moved quickly, blowing all other offers out of contention.

To some observers, it sounds like Japan all over again.

With their economy booming in the 1980's, the Japanese paid top dollar for landmark buildings and golf courses from New York to Los Angeles. They bought $7.4 billion worth of real estate in Manhattan alone over three years ending in 1990, including Rockefeller Center, which touched off a xenophobic reaction over the sale of American patrimony.

But in 1990, the Tokyo stock market collapsed and property values in Manhattan plummeted. Japanese investors lost hundreds of millions and most of the buildings found their way back into American hands.

Andrew Farkas, a partner with Istithmar in 230 Park and some other deals, said that the crown prince's strategy had no parallel with that of the Japanese in the 1980's.

"This is much more strategic in nature," said Mr. Farkas, a scion of the Alexander's department store family and the ex-chairman of the Insignia Financial Group. "It's part of a focused, deliberate decision-making process that would appear to be asset by asset, not a broad, sweeping ambition to acquire things."


nytimes.com



To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 11:18:37 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
The Chicago Mercantike Exchange (CME) announced it will launch housing price price futures. The contracts will be based on the median home price in ten U.S. cities and are expected to begin trading next April. That should coincide nicely with the end of the housing boom.

the above posted by ork on the RE board



To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 11:22:20 AM
From: mishedlo  Respond to of 116555
 
Fannie Mae Reveals Further Accounting Problems
By Greg Morcroft

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Mortgage giant Fannie Mae (FNM) said Thursday it's uncovered new accounting problems in the course of an ongoing review, and identified issues totaling more than $10 billion related to derivatives, insurance accounting and other matters.

In a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the company, which has previously said it will restate several past periods of financial results, now expects that its 2005 annual financial report will not be completed before the second half of 2006.

The company also said the New York Stock Exchange is reviewing the company's listing since it's been unable to file results in a timely manner. It also said the exchange has filed a proposed rule change with the SEC that would allow it to keep Fannie Mae listed.

In the filing the company said it has identified a problem related to hedge accounting that will lead to an estimated net cumulative after-tax loss of approximately $8.4 billion as of December 31, 2004.

Further, Fannie said it identified errors that will cost it $2.4 billion to remedy related to misapplied cash flow hedge accounting for its mortgage commitments.

The company also said it's reviewing its accounting for certain insurance transactions and, to date, has "determined that one mortgage insurance policy did not transfer sufficient underlying risk of economic loss to the insurer, and therefore does not qualify for accounting as insurance."



To: ild who wrote (40923)11/10/2005 12:57:21 PM
From: LLCF  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116555
 
Wall streets favorite Turkey is gagging!! Wonder what the I-banks will prey on for the next couple of decades?:

<Peter Niculescu, executive vice president in charge of the housing agency's mortgage portfolio, told investors during a conference call Thursday that, despite the significant widening of spreads on mortgage bonds over the past month, Fannie still doesn't see "significant" investment opportunities.>

Uhhhh, you mean you finally got a guy in there that counts the liability side of buying those things??? LOL, I mean, common guys... what's another Trillion? Open wide!

DAK

PS... maybe investment banks can somehow worm in on the upcoming new and improved RTC?