To: unclewest who wrote (146745 ) 11/13/2005 6:16:36 AM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793917 UW, being an internationally renown military expert and geopolitical analyst I should help clear this up: <They are inflicting casualties at a rate of 20-1 and then see shit like "Are we losing in Iraq" on TV and the print media. For the most part, they are satisfied with their equipment, food and leadership. Bottom line though, and they all say this, there are not enough guys there to drive the final stake through the heart of the insurgency, primarily because there aren't enough troops in-theater to shut down the borders with Iran and Syria. The Iranians and the Syrians just cant stand the thought of Iraq being an American ally (with, of course, permanent US bases there). > Firstly, the "body count" of 20:1. I remember thinking it absurd during the Vietnam war how the "body count" was so enormously in the USA's favour. My Lai explained some of that counting process. Most people will exaggerate their achievements to look good. One would rather count children as being Vietcong or Islamic Jihad. Taking the 20:1 with a grain of salt but assuming the 2,000 USA fatalities is more or less accurate, that would mean something like 40,000 military enemies killed. But maybe it's much higher because the USA has body armour and stuff leading to a higher injury to death ratio. Say there are 100,000 military opposition killed. From what I've seen in news, something like 10% of the populations in Palestine, Iraq, Iran etc are virulently Islamic Jihadish. Say there are a billion Moslems and 200 million in the vicinity of Iraq, from Pakistan to Morocco and Somalia to London, who could reasonably get to the battle zones with a bit of effort. 10% of 200 million is 20 million. Leave out the women, who for the most part don't get involved, that's still 10 million. Say it's only 1 million, that's still a lot of potential recruits who are likely to keep coming. Not to mention the breeding rate which means the supply won't run dry unless the ideological situation changes. I think that before the USA has had 10,000 killed, the political pressure to bail out will become so substantial that politicians will have to go along with it. At 20:1 or even 100:1, that would be only 200,000 or 1 million of the enemy. The potential Islamic Jihad young recruits wondering what to do with their lives that might be useful is a LOT of people. A complicating factor is that each time there is "collateral damage", the recruiting base goes up for the opposition. Not to mention the arrogance of conquerors [some of them if not all] which understandably generates resistance. The official seal of approval on torture for example is not a way to win an ideological battle. "Sure, we water-board and generally terrify and demean the opposition, but they deserve it for opposing us. Okay, okay, there's a spot of rendition too". If it's true that the borders can't be controlled, then that's problematic as the external supply of Islamic Jihad is large, as is the internal supply. The USA and COW are not a conquering force in the traditional genocidal sense, so there are a lot of COW supporters in the region. With the carnage wrought by Islamic Jihad attacks on civilians and Moslems in general, including police recruits and so on, they aren't winning a lot of friends outside their own fanaticism. The battle for hearts and minds is far from a foregone conclusion. Far from won. The "final stake" is not in sight, but maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel, which hopefully is not a freight train coming the other way. I get the impression Islamic Jihad is in it for the long haul; being measured in hundreds of years. I'm not sure the infamously short USA attention span will go the distance. Jews seem to think like that too, battling away for the "Promised Land". What a mess. Mqurice