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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ild who wrote (45547)	11/15/2005 1:06:34 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

the crisis that everybody fears is never the crisis that actually happens. Heinz sure likes these hyperbolic statements. like his "death warrant has been signed on Google" proclamation about 120 points ago. unfortunately, his blanket aphorisms are full of bedbugs. there is no magic Crisis Fairy out there who ensures that a crisis will not come to pass if only enough people worry about it. New Orleans is something many people "feared" but it did happen. many people feared the stock market would crash and it did happen. many people feared GM would fall apart and that is in the process of happening, along with FNM, and now of course the housing market. thankfully many feared crises do not come to pass, which indicates that crises are fairly rare events and difficult to predict. but there is no reason to think that the mere recognition of a potential crisis due to "warning signs" invokes a supernatural mechanism which prevents occurrence. it seems particularly bizarre that Heinz brings out this aphorism based on the mild winter and "crisis averted" for natural gas. as if fear of a harsh winter somehow causes a mild winter to occur.

To: ild who wrote (45547)	11/15/2005 1:46:02 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Date: Tue Nov 15 2005 13:25 trotsky (@the monsters in our midst) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved Arthur Silber on the torture 'debate'. "The Pentagon effectively signed off on a strategy that mimics Red Army methods. But those tactics were not only inhumane, they were ineffective. For Communist interrogators, truth was beside the point: their aim was to force compliance to the point of false confession." powerofnarrative.blogspot.com Date: Tue Nov 15 2005 12:24 trotsky (Hambone@BGO) ID#248269: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved "it's hard to get a sense of exactly what they've sold forward and what the consequences are." actually, that's not hard to see. one of the most uncomplicated and transparent hedge books out there as it were. the hegding for the Kupol project loan is unfortunate, but as we know the banks insist on such project loan hedging. regarding the earnings report, although earnings for the past quarter were predictably no great shakes, there appears to be a big improvement in Petrex's future contribution according to production figures for October and due to the by now much higher Rand gold price. Julietta had already a great operational performance this quarter. also, Refugio is now going to begin kicking in, belatedly, but with a robust margin. meanwhile, the additional drilling at Kupol and Julietta has revealed a lot more high grade ore. Kupol remains one of the most impressive greenfields discoveries of the past few decades as it were. it will be one of the lowest cost gold mines on the planet once it begins producing. true, BGO's share count has risen a lot, but there has been good demand for the most recent share issue , which has failed to dent the stock's price. the reason is imo the fact that the project loans have been attained, which brings certainty to the Kupol development. obviously the start-up is still some way off, but if one were to assume hypothetically that Kupol was already operating, the shares would be dirt cheap compared to its peers. anyway, all that skepticism regarding BGO suits me just fine - usually the stocks that invite so much questioning turn out to be the best long term performers ( mostly because low expectations will likely be met with positive surprises ) .