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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (45698)	11/17/2005 8:04:46 AM
From: Ramsey Su	Respond to of 110194

mish, there is nothing simple about FNM. It is a stock that I salivate over but not comfortable enough to pull the trigger. Here are some of my random thoughts. 1. interest rate may go up, especially mortgage rates. If a credit event happens, mortgage rates may decouple from the treasuries since treasuries do not default (not yet anyway). 2. interest rate may go down. If we have a global recession, everyone will drop rates to beggar thy neighbor. 3. the agencies screwed themselves with miserable management in the last few years. If there is trouble in the mortgage market, it may help them re-establish their dominating position. 4. both fre and fnm have been trying to clean house. fnm is "exempt" from having to tell us anything indefinitely. So while fnm is fun to yap about at cocktail parties, it is damn difficult to use as an investment tool, long or short.

To: mishedlo who wrote (45698)	11/17/2005 10:50:52 AM
From: John Vosilla	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110194

"I say they will not. I further say they will not at 4.30 or 4.10" Mish we could have one round of refi's to fixed rate if they can get back into the mid 5's again. The relentless combination of resetting ARM's, higher RE taxes and insurance is causing many sleepless nights as PITI goes up substantially year over year. Another question is would the fed allow this too happen putting more of their banker friends at risk if too high a percentage of loans were fixed? I bet they are happy with 45% of mortgages today being ARM's..